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Aircraft Asset Assessment

June 10, 2019

The ERJ145

Market Presence. Part of the structure of the ERJ145 can be traced to the successful EMB120 Brasilia. The airframe is therefore something of a known quantity in terms of being able to cope with the short sector lengths. The ability of the regional jets to offer a similar service life to their larger narrowbody contemporaries still remains something of an unknown. As the primary U.S. market has already moved to new types after 20 years, perhaps a 30-service life is not important – except for residual values. The replacement of turboprops, combined with scope clauses, previously kept demand high but high fuel prices have forced operators to reconsider turboprops and larger regional jets at the expense of the 50 seaters. The problems of the CRJ200ER initially were more significant but values of the ERJ145 have been adversely affected by association and are as much in negative territory as the CRJ. The remarketing of the ERJ145 has been undertaken by both Embraer and third parties but the former have the ability to offer more support packages which second tier operators find attractive. The last few years have taken their toll on values of the ERJ145 which have suffered greatly. Those not having the support package from Rolls-Royce fare even worse.

Market Outlook. One of the key concerns for residual values of regional jets, perhaps contrasting with most other jet aircraft types, has been the dominance of the US market, where perhaps 75-80 percent of the regional jet fleet once resided. As scope clauses have continued to lose their significance and airlines have been able to use larger equipment, and as traffic grows, smaller units are being replaced by larger examples. The move away from the 19 seat turboprop has been evident for some years with the 30 seat turboprop sector similarly affected. The rollover of the fleet in favor of larger, more passenger orientated (widebody interiors) and newer types, particularly those that offer the family concept, has been a major influence. The values have fallen to such extent in recent years that scrap levels have been reached in some cases.

 

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