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Most Regional Jet Values Under Pressure

March 4, 2019

The regional jet market is facing the dual pressure of advancing age of outgoing models and limited appetite for incoming types and as such values are experiencing some weakness.

Values are in Millions of US Dollars and are based on The Aircraft Value Reference published by The Aircraft Value Analysis Company Ltd (AVAC) www.aircraftvalues.net www.aircraftvalues.com. An Aircraft Rating has been included reflecting the suitability of the type for asset based financing over the medium term with a range of A++ (best) through to Eā€”(worst).

Regional Jet Current Values US$m ā€“ March 2019
Aircraft Age Value Rtg Trend Analysis
Avro RJ70 19931996 0.50.7 E The market for the RJ70 remains limited to a few operators, as indeed has been the case ever since it was introduced. With four engines, the market for the type was always difficult with only 70 seats proving difficult to achieve profitability. The aircraft is not a type that is suited to asset based financing.
Avro RJ85 19931998 0.81.1 E+ The market for the RJ85 has been weak for many years but in terms of capital cost versus new offerings, the RJ85 represents something of a bargain. Unfortunately twin engined regional jets are now of an age where they have become much more viable and as such tend to be more preferred at the expense of the RJ85. A figure of more than $2 million can apply to types in good condition but these are rare.
Avro RJ100 19931998 0.91.3 E+ Values of the RJ100 have not moved but then they have fallen by a considerable degree over the last decade leaving little room for further falls. The aircraft though may continue to serve particularly if utilization rates are reduced. To some extent it straddled the regional and mainline market such that only a few were capable of using the aircraft.
CRJ100ER 19931998 0.30.6 E The market for the CRJ100ER is extremely difficult and seeking to remarket the type requires considerable stamina and persistence. The CRJ100ER started the 50 seat revolution although there were pocket rockets in the 1960s ā€“ the BAC1-11, the DC9-10, or F28 for example. Fortunately, the restrictive scope clauses of the U.S. and the regulatory environment meant that 50 seats could be made to pay because operators had little choice but to operate such aircraft.
CRJ200ER(U.S.) 19961999200120032005 0.51.01.31.41.9 E The aircraft is always available on the used market and this has kept pricing down to near scrap levels, particularly in the U.S. It has to be noted that those potential buyers outside of the U.S. prefer to acquire non U.S. aircraft as transferring maintenance and registration can be easier. There can be a wide variation in value depending on condition with those in better condition able to command higher values.
CRJ700(U.S.) 2000200320052011e 3.04.25.011.0 D+D+ The market for the 70 seaters, at least those produced in the 2000s, is being eroded as operators seek replacement with larger capacity aircraft. Values are falling as the age of the aircraft advances. The market for the 70 seaters is not what it once was and values are declining by a reasonable percentage.
CRJ900(U.S.) 200220052011en2016en 5.58.012.021.0 C–C- Bombardier has sold off the CSeries and the Dash8-400 which leaves it with the CRJ. This is a type that is being marketed on the basis of a proven design at a low price. This inevitably has negative consequences for values. It is very fortunate for the type that scope clauses have prevented operators from ordering newer and much environmentally friendly aircraft. Once a new President in the US is elected next year, there may be a shift in environmental emphasis.
CRJ1000 20112014 11.020.0 C- The CRJ1000 remains exposed to the E-Jets. There was always expected to be a limited number of orders given the prescriptive nature of scope clauses in the US but with only 70 orders to date from four customers the outcome has been less than encouraging.
ERJ135ER(U.S.) 19992001 0.61.1 E The market for the E135ERmay be limited in terms of the number in service but there can be no denying the large number of operators. There are over 200 operators of the type although many are non commercial entities. Values are stable as they have fallen so far. The 30 seater commuter jet is always an issue and it remains to be seen whether Turkey can make it work.
ERJ145ER(U.S.) 1996200120032005 0.71.21.31.9 E+ There are a large number on the market most of which originate in the U.S. and may not be easily exported to other countries where most buyers reside. Values have continued to fall by a significant amount and this trend will continue as the 50 seat market contracts in favor of larger aircraft.
Embraer 170Std 2003200720112014 4.98.913.016.0 C– The 70 seat market is difficult and values have continued to experience a greater than average fall in recent years and this decline has been notable more recently. The E175 has become much more favored due to scope clauses and there is a concern that the 70 seaters will face greater weakness going forward. However, used examples are being placed although it can take time. The MRJ70 represents a formidable competitor when it finally enters service.
Embraer 175 200420102016E 6.814.024.0 C-C+ The Aircraft Rating for the E175 has fallen which is to be expected in view of the concentration in the U.S. There is a divergence of view with respect to the E175. On the one hand the large number of orders is seen as a positive but conversely most originate from the U.S. operators. The experience with the 50 seaters should provide pause for thought as scope clauses will be relaxed in the coming years allowing the E175E2 and MRJ90 to act as replacements. Where will all the E175s then go?
Embraer 190 2005200820112014 9.513.018.023.0 C The values of the E190 are falling by a considerable amount because of the rising availability. The aircraft is losing its popularity as the E2 enters service. This is a concern for some time to come as more operators are set to divest themselves of the E190 with some citing maintenance costs as an issue.
Embraer 195 200620112014 11.519.023.5 C- The Aircraft Rating has also fallen as demand for used aircraft is seen as being less than supply in the coming years. The E2 is a larger aircraft and may be seen as a direct replacement rather than a complementary product. The capacity of even the existing E195 should not be underestimated as it offers near mainline seating. The larger capacity may allow operators to cope more effectively with above trend traffic growth.
328JET 19992001 0.10.2 E- A good aircraft that perhaps did not have the best of starts. Value convergence has been apparent for some time and the market is now very restricted. The basic design is now to be upgraded by Turkey which is an interesting development given that this segment of the market has not produced any winners.
Fokker 70 19951998 0.50.7 E- The Fokker 70 continues to keep going. On shorter sectors with limited traffic, the Fokker 70 has some utility but any asset value is limited. The installation of a center tank usually warrants a premium and is considered to be much more desirable.
Fokker 100 19871993 0.50.7 E- The Fokker 100 faces continued problems as the market favors new types. Even though a value is indicated this is more a price as the absence of asset based lending makes a value something of an irrelevance. The number in storage is significant, most of which will never return to service.
Commentary reflects changes from last update of October 2018

 

 

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