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GDP, RPKs, and the Airline Playbook for 2026

Author: Aircraft Value News
February 9, 2026

For decades, the relationship between gross domestic product GDP growth and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) was treated as aviation gospel. Strong economies produced strong traffic growth, and airlines expanded fleets accordingly. By 2026, that equation no longer holds with the same reliability.

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Mission / Aircraft Values News was created in 1992 to provide independent and informed advice regarding current and future aircraft values, and the factors that affect them, to the air transport community.AVN's core activity is the provision of expert commentary on current and future market values and lease rates. AVN seeks to interpret and analyze current events, enabling readers to more accurately anticipate future market trends. AVN expertise centers on an appreciation that aircraft are a commodity, subject to vagaries of supply and demand. AVN's subscribers comprise decision makers at financial i aft lessors and airlines.
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