As the global aviation industry moves into 2026, the consensus among analysts and industry observers paints a picture of strong underlying demand paired with persistent production constraints and a tightening economic backdrop.
For appraisers, lessors, airline management teams, and financiers this means navigating a landscape where aircraft values and lease rates are firming, backlog remains exceptionally high, and production rates at the major OEMs are set to rise but not enough to satiate demand.
Let’s take a quick look at what the global aviation industry can expect in 2026, from the perspective of the aircraft valuation niche.
Airbus, Boeing, Embraer: What’s Next
According to Business Research Insights, the global aircraft manufacturing market is starting the year 2026 at an estimated value of US $755.8 billion, on track to exceed US $1.2 trillion by 2035, for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.89% between 2026 and 2035.
The duopoly of Boeing and Airbus continues to dominate the narrative, with Embraer and the regional OEMs making meaningful contributions and COMAC starting to exert pressure, especially in Asia-Pacific.
A quick look at 2025 shows that Airbus took the lead over its arch-rival Boeing. According to industry figures, Airbus delivered 784 commercial aircraft last year, essentially meeting its target. Boeing, meanwhile, delivered 595 aircraft, beating expectations following several years of disruption and regulatory woes. The win in 2025 clearly goes to Airbus.
In fact, according to unconfirmed estimates released this week, Airbus racked up 793 deliveries in 2025.
Aircraft demand is at a historic peak, with the order backlog nearing 14,000 jets. At today’s production rates, that translates into waits of more than a decade for some models, underscoring the need for a sharp increase in manufacturing output.
Aircraft Value News projects that in 2026, Airbus and Boeing will deliver 1,044 and 708 aircraft, respectively, rising to 1,188 and 870 in 2027. Those numbers are roughly 50% more than 2025, an increase that will put further pressure on an already beleaguered supply chain.
To meet growing long-term demand, Airbus calculates that 42,430 new commercial jet aircraft (widebody, single aisle and regional jet) will be needed from 2025 to 2043. Boeing predicts a greater requirement, for nearly 44,000 new aircraft.
Apart from total aircraft numbers, both manufacturing behemoths convey similar long-term forecasts. \Single-aisle aircraft are projected to dominate deliveries in 2026 and beyond, due to the continued expansion of low-cost carriers, strong demand for air travel in emerging markets, especially in the Asia-Pacific, and the increasing popularity of point-to-point services. Airbus and Boeing project nearly 80% of future aircraft deliveries will be single-aisle aircraft, inclusive of regional jets.
Brazil-based Embraer, the world’s third-largest airplane manufacturer, achieved about 85 commercial jet deliveries in 2025, representing a 10% improvement. The regional jet maker expects to ramp up production to 100 aircraft in 2026.
Aircraft values have been underpinned by tight supply across key segments. Narrowbody next-generation jets such as the Boeing 737 MAX 8 and the Airbus A320neo remain especially valuable in the secondhand and lease markets.
Based on data compiled through 2025 and projections into early 2026, lease rates for new generation narrowbody aircraft are expected to increase moderately as supply remains tight relative to demand, with the A321-200neo commanding some of the highest monthly lease rates in the industry.
Older Models Retain Value
Older, mature narrowbodies like the Boeing 737-800 and A320ceo continue to see value support as airlines and lessors prefer to extend leases rather than transition to scarce replacements, boosting charter and mature aircraft valuations.
Widebody markets show a similar trend of constrained supply nudging values upward particularly for models like the Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 777-300ER whose production progress has been slow relative to order backlogs.
The analyst consensus projects modest value increases through early 2026 for these widebody families, reflecting limited deliveries and sustained demand for long-haul capacity.
This supply-constrained environment has fed into the aircraft lease market. With aircraft deliveries lagging orders, lessors are holding onto equipment longer, extending leases to airlines, and commanding higher lease rates on newer jets.
Analysts forecast new narrowbody lease rates to grow into 2026 as supply tightens, though borrowing costs for lessors remain elevated due to high global interest rates and inflationary pressures.
The pattern has been one of stabilization in 2025 followed by continued rate strength into 2026, particularly for the youngest, most fuel-efficient fleets and aircraft with advanced avionics in the cockpit. Indeed, avionics technology and artificial intelligence will continue to play an important role in aircraft valuation this year and over the long term.
Analysts also expect lease transitions to remain depressed in 2026, keeping aircraft in service longer under existing deals.
Editor’s Note: This article is a condensed transcript of the report. The video contains the unabridged version.
