The commercial airline industry is riding a paradox. Demand for air travel is booming, new aircraft deliveries are constrained, and as a result the average age of global fleets is creeping upward.
That aging is not just a cosmetic issue. It is reshaping aircraft values, lease rates and airline economics. In this video, I’ll take a hard look at how older birds are becoming bigger risk‑factors for lessors and operators alike.
According to a recent report from the Airlines for America, the average age of the global airline fleet has increased to approximately 13.7 years in 2025, up from around 12.9 years in 2022. And it’s projected that average fleet age could rise to around 16 years by 2033.
The rapid aging of the global commercial aircraft fleet isn’t just hitting balance sheets; it’s also tightening the margins of safety.
Older jets mean older components, more fatigue cycles, and maintenance schedules stretched thin by global supply shortages. Airlines are flying aircraft deeper into their service lives while waiting for new deliveries, often with deferred overhauls or parts swapped from other aging frames.
Regulators haven’t loosened safety oversight, but the operational reality is clear: the longer fleets stay in the air past their economic prime, the tighter the margin for error becomes. In aviation, safety and economics are never fully separate—and right now, both are showing strain.
Why is this happening? Multiple factors: production delays at the major manufacturers, supply‑chain bottlenecks, and thus fewer new jets to replace older ones. The net effect: carriers are keeping older aircraft in service longer.
Airlines are facing record engine maintenance delays, with turnaround times for new-generation engines now running 150% longer than before the pandemic — and 35% longer for older models. A global crunch in parts, skilled labor, and new aircraft supply is forcing carriers to keep aging jets flying, pushing maintenance costs and fleet ages higher than ever.
More than 30,000 commercial aircraft are flying today, and over 10,000 of them are more than 20 years old. Each jet costs roughly $1 million a year to maintain and that number climbs steadily with age.
Older generation aircraft lose value more rapidly if they lack the newest fuel‑efficient engines, avionics upgrades or are less attractive for conversion. For lessors or airlines holding these older types, that means thinner margins for remarketing or resale.
Implications for Lease Rates and Values
As aircraft age, the rental income stream and residual value form the backbone of the lessor business model. But aging introduces risks. Older aircraft incur higher maintenance, engine costs, less favorable fuel burn and may face shorter lease terms or more remarketing risk.
For lessors the strategy has generally been to own a jet for the first third of its expected useful life and then remarket or retire it. For example, Air Lease Corporation states that their strategy is to own an aircraft “during the first third of its expected 25‑year useful life” to maximize residual values.
But when fleets get older globally, the value‐supportive tailwinds are weaker. Older aircraft face fewer potential lessees, tougher maintenance return conditions, lower resale values. As value declines, lessors may demand higher lease rates just to achieve acceptable returns and airlines may balk. The mismatch adds financial risk.
Moreover, in a tighter new aircraft delivery market, airlines may extend older jets’ service lives beyond what they planned. That might keep planes flying longer, but each extra year adds maintenance and obsolescence risk, thereby eroding future value and making leasing renewal decisions harder.
For airlines, operating older aircraft means higher fuel burn, more expensive maintenance, potential regulatory or noise/emissions costs. That increases per‑seat costs and shrinks bottom‑line margins.
Lessors, meanwhile, depend on both lease payments and future resale/remarketing value. If value deteriorates faster than expected, return on investment suffers. They may push for shorter lease terms, higher rates, or restrictions on usage.
As residual values for older types become less certain, lease rate spreads widen. Some older types might demand higher rates simply to compensate for risk, but airlines may resist, reducing demand and placing downward pressure eventually.
These trends are poised to become more pronounced in 2026. Major delivery backlogs for new aircraft mean airlines are forced to keep older jets flying longer. Supply‑chain issues and production slowdowns at Boeing and Airbus heighten replacement delays.
Meanwhile, elevated interest rates and financing costs increase pressure on leasing returns, making older assets less attractive from an investment viewpoint.
As airline fleets age, the risks are shifting from simply operational maintenance to broader value and leasing economics. For lessors and airlines alike, holding older generation aircraft without clear renewal or remarketing pathways means diminished returns and elevated exposure.
Editor’s Note: This is a transcript, edited for concision. The video contains my complete and unabridged report.
