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Retirements Delayed, Deficit Derailed: Why the Aircraft Supply Squeeze Isn’t as Dire as Predicted

October 20, 2025

In the years following the dual shocks of COVID-19 and the 737 MAX grounding, the aviation industry has been conditioned to believe it faces a deep supply crunch. Fewer aircraft than expected rolled off assembly lines, deliveries lagged, and production ramp-ups at both Boeing and Airbus ran slower than forecasts suggested.

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