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Aircraft Asset Assessment – The A321neo

October 2, 2017

Market Presence. With 44 customers for the A321neo but only six deliveries as of the end of August 2017, the current deployment is less than originally envisaged but is an improving picture. In the first eight months of 2017 a total of 185 A320ceo/neos were delivered compared to 123 A321ceo/neos but this proportion will increase in favor of the A321neo as the backlog of A320neos currently parked and awaiting engines is eliminated. With over 1,400 orders for the A321neo a move to larger aircraft is clearly indicated. Whilst not every operator will wish to fill the aircraft with 230-240 seats, the move away from even 180 seats is clearly illustrated. Operators are increasingly seeking to improve efficiency and meet traffic growth. The easiest way of achieving this is to increase aircraft size.

Market Outlook. Airbus and Boeing together with the engine manufacturers may introduce improvements such that the early examples of the A321neo may be replaced by more versatile versions not least through PIPs on the new LEAP and GTF. For the time being the A321neo is considered to be the aircraft of choice and will continue to enjoy superiority over the B737-10. In the much longer term there is a risk that the manufacturers will introduce all new aircraft such that the existing models are viewed as interim models, such that residual values will experience a sharp decline. The Boeing B797 is an aircraft that may eventually impact the A321neo and this could enter service by 2025 if Boeing moves forward with the basic design over the next 12 months.

 

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