The forthcoming three years would seem to offer the prospect of a golden age for the newer regional jets.
There are very few manufacturers with only Embraer in evidence at present although the A220-100 is a competitor to the E195E2. The age profile of the existing regional jet fleet is such that replacement is overdue for some operators. Even as regional traffic is set to increase as the market recovers, the less efficient regional jets will be exposed, particularly as turboprops have become more accepted on longer routes.
Even though fuel represents a lesser proportion of direct operating costs on regional jets due to their short to medium sectors, the higher price of fuel is causing operators to carefully consider whether moving to larger aircraft which offer lower seat mile costs, or indeed whether a turboprop is more appropriate, is a more realistic long term fleet strategy. Fortunately, the regional jet market is dominated by the U.S. which continues to see a relatively static regional fleet structure as evidenced by the continued use of the 50 seat regional jets.
Values are in Millions of US Dollars and are based on The Aircraft Value Reference published by The Aircraft Value Analysis Company Ltd (AVAC) www.aircraftvalues.net www.aircraftvalues.com. An Aircraft Rating has been included reflecting the suitability of the type for asset based financing over the medium term with a range of A++ (best) through to E—(worst).
| Regional Jet Current Values US$m – August 2022 | ||||
| Aircraft | Age | Value | Rtg | Trend Analysis |
| Avro RJ70 | 1993
1996 |
There were only ever 12 RJ70’s built and three are currently active. Six have been scrapped, one has crashed, and two are in storage. None are with commercial operators and as such values have not been placed on the aircraft for many years. Placing a value on the RJ70 is something of an irrelevant exercise given that none are in commercial service. Of the 12 that were produced six have been scrapped, one crashed and the remaining five are in service with non commercial entities. | ||
| Avro RJ85 | 1993
1998 |
0.60.7 | E- | Out of the 88 RJ85s that were built only 23 remain active. The conversion to Air Tanker has proved reasonably popular and ten are active in this role. There are very few in operation in what can be termed a straight vanilla role. The type builds upon the BAe146 that first saw service in the early 1980s and even the RJ is now nearly 30 years of age. The four engine configuration was the result of an intent to serve downtown airports and non-paved runways. But the market never really evolved to see significant demand and as soon as the new generation of twin engined aircraft regional jets emerged the BAe146/Avro became increasingly sidelined. However, BAe asset management essentially set the bar for in terms of being proactive offering fixed price maintenance and making sure leases were effectively monitored. |
| Avro RJ100 | 1993
1998 |
0.60.7 | E- | The RJ100 continues to provide good service for a number of operators and even though values have suffered over the years at present there exists a measure of stability even though they can acquired for the price of a modest house in Hatfield, UK, where they were originally manufactured. The values of the type were never going to recover with those in storage. |
| CRJ100ER | 1993
1998 |
0.20.3 | E- | The age of the aircraft at more than 25 years clearly indicates a very limited future. A 50 seat regional jet has not been built for more than 15 years which clearly demonstrates that the market has moved on. There were some 170 CRJ100s that were built and of these 92 have already been scrapped, another 64 are inactive which leaves only 15 in active service. Such statistics do not bode well and values are at scrap levels. |
| CRJ200ER(U.S.) | 1996
1999 2001 2003 2005 |
0.3
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 |
E- | The values of the CRJ200ER have not performed well for more than a decade. The condition, location and specification can see considerable variation in pricing. There is now a move to re-engine the CRJ with hydrogen-electric engines. Non-US aircraft tend to attract higher pricing. When production was at its peak 20 years ago, the type was seeing considerable demand from U.S. operators not least because of the hub and spoke structure of the market and feeder services. The type has long seen a considerable number in storage and this has always had a negative effect on values. The values are expected to continue to remain stable at these levels. |
| CRJ700(U.S.) | 2000
2003 2005 2011e |
1.7
2.2 2.8 6.7 |
D–D– | The true 70 seat market has been replaced by aircraft either offering 80 seats or 55-60 seats not least due to scope clause limitations. There is a certain irony that the far greater focus on the environment has not translated into the relaxation of Scope Clauses that would allow operators in the U.S. to acquire much more efficient 85 seaters. The values of the CRJ700 have declined further even as the type continues to see good service in the U.S. This is the crux of the problem for values of the regional jets – the market for the type revolves around the U.S. Remarketing the CRJ700 outside of the U.S. is therefore difficult. |
| CRJ900(U.S.) | 2002
2005 2011en 2016ng |
2.7
4.1 7.5 11.5 |
D
D+ |
There is yet a possibility that the CRJ900 could be revived, particularly if there was some way of modifying the design to allow for hydrogen to be used. The ability to limit the supply of hydrogen to a few dozen airports would make the logistical challenges less onerous. In the interim values face, a modest decline. The CRJ900 has enjoyed – and continues to do so – success due to the restrictive scope clauses in the U.S. While ESG considerations will increasingly erode the limitations, in the interim the CRJ900 remains a viable product in the U.S. Even so values are considered to have declined slightly as the fleet ages. The operator base has managed to extend beyond the U.S. shores to some extent. The younger examples will likely see values falling further in the coming years. |
| CRJ1000 | 2011
2014 |
7.4
9.5 |
D- | The aircraft is not seen as the most desirable of assets because of the limited production run and operator base but the type has moved between operators which is promising. The Aircraft Rating has now fallen to D-. Some 14 CRJ1000s operated by Hop! have been acquired by Jetcraft and these aircraft have been mostly placed. There were only 65 ever built which is a disappointment as the economics of the triple stretched CRJ200 represented a relatively efficient aircraft but unfortunately fell foul of scope clauses. |
| ERJ135ER(U.S.) | 1999
2001 |
0.4
0.5 |
E- | The commuter jet is even of lesser interest in an era of high fuel prices. Unless operating in a regulated market where a fares can rise without fear of competition, then the difference between profit and loss is very small. Just over 400 were built and many are now used in a non-commercial or quasi-commercial role. The depth and breadth of the operator base is therefore surprising. The values may seem low but there can be considerable variation depending on condition and maintenance status. |
| ERJ145ER(U.S.) | 1996
2001 2003 |
0.4
0.8 0.9 |
E- | The ERJ145ER is a prisoner of the US market and always has been. There is always availability, but pricing has been a function of condition and specification. At one time Russia seemed to be prime location but some of those that were placed with Russian operators have had to be scrapped. The perception that the majority of the ERJ145s are located in the U.S. is correct but there are a myriad of other operators around the world that still use the type. The type continues to be regularly traded with considerable variation in pricing. |
| Embraer 170Std | 2003
2007 2011 2014 |
2.2
4.5 6.7 8.7 |
D- | The E170 represented a new generation of regional jets and provided passengers with mainline comfort. The type enjoyed some success but as scope creep ground to a halt the move to a slightly larger offering to meet scope clauses was inevitable. Values have therefore suffered as a result. In common with the CRJ700, the 70 seat segment of the market has been overtaken by the 75-85 seat aircraft. The type has a relatively limited operator base although geographically it is more diverse than might be expected. |
| Embraer 175 | 2004
2010 2016E |
4.4
9.3 16.5 |
C-C++ | It may seem that the E175 is enjoying a golden age not least because of scope clauses preventing the introduction of more efficient and environmentally friendly types. Values fell as a result of Covid but have recovered to a large extent given sustained demand in the U.S. The E175 – notably the Enhanced which offers at least a five percent operating cost advantage over the standard E175 – represents the prime regional jet. While other aircraft were placed into storage in their hundreds the E175 was in demand in the U.S. during the Covid Event and even fresh orders were placed for the type. |
| Embraer 190 | 2005
2008 2011 2014 |
4.7
7.0 10.5 12.0 |
D | The Rating has improved slightly as demand has improved. The E190 has improved to some extent from the lows of late 2019 and early 2020 when the type was seeing a surplus. Some aircraft have been reabsorbed into the fleet but there are a number still on the market. Values are continuing to fall but at a lesser rate. The type is still facing problems due to advancing age, higher than expected maintenance, and the arrival of the E190E2. As the E190 is located throughout the world, some markets – such as China – are continuing to face issues which prevents a return to service. |
| Embraer 190E2 | 2018
2022 |
24.0
31.5 |
C++ | The limited demand for the E2 is a concern and this has prevented values from recovering some of the decline recorded due to the Covid Event. Yet, as the market improves and the focus is more on efficiency, then the E2 may come more into its own. There has been a modest rise in the value of new examples. It is noted that a limited number have thus far have been built with only a few remaining on backlog. This is considered to be a concern and makes it difficult to see how values will be lifted any higher, even given rampant inflation. |
| Embraer 195 | 2006
2011 2014 |
5.5
10.0 13.5 |
D- | The market for the E195 is limited not least because of the fewer number of deliveries compared to the E190 and more restricted operator base. However, more seats means lower seat mile costs assuming that the aircraft can be filled. The arrival of the larger E2 is a major negative in terms of recovery. The operator base of the E195 is limited Values have recovered to some extent but have yet to match pre-Covid trajectories for residual values. |
| Embraer 195E2 | 2019
2022 |
27.0
34.0 |
C++ | The E195E2 is a larger offering and therefore operating economics are that much better even without the benefit of the engines. The wing has also been improved and as such the E2 goes far beyond a “simple” re-engining. The values of the E2 are rising but some way remains before a new example reaches pre-Covid levels once again. The A220-100 offers a very relevant alternative. This is the aircraft that will see further demand in the coming years. The E195E2 program received a boost with Porter Airlines ordering up to 80 replacing a letter of intent for A220s. |
| 328JET | 1999
2001 |
0.10.1 | E- | The values may seem to be at scrap levels but this is contrary to some expectations that the value should be in excess of $2 million. Much depends on the condition and maintenance status. There are far more that are inactive however than are active. The operator base is also limited. |
| Fokker 70 | 1995
1998 |
0.20.3 | E– | The aircraft was built in small numbers with only 48 ever built of which half still remain in active service. The number of operators is small which will always limit remarketing opportunities. |
| Fokker 100 | 1987
1993 |
0.20.3 | E– | The Fokker 100 belongs to a previous era and asset value has long since passed. here can also be variation in the pricing with some in good condition attracting much higher prices. |
| Commentary reflects changes from last update of April 2022 | ||||
