FOR CURRENT &
FUTURE AIRCRAFT VALUES

Assumptions

January 31, 2022

The table is published on an annual basis and complements the quarterly updates to specific aircraft categories. The table encompasses both current and future lease rentals. The methodology involved in calculating lease rentals differs from that of values. Lease rentals display greater volatility. Rentals are calculated individually and are not causally linked to values.

The listing of current and future lease rates is based on the year of build. However, unlike values, the relevance of the year of build is less significant. The essential assumption is that the aircraft are being leased as a single unit and between a willing lessor and willing lessee on a dry operating lease basis. Maintenance reserves are assumed to be payable in addition to the quoted rates.

The assumed rentals period ranges between four to six years for modern narrowbodies to five to seven years for the larger widebodies. Aircraft out of production will likely involve shorter terms. The assumed rental period will change depending on the then prevailing market conditions. Weak market conditions will usually result in shorter terms while stronger conditions will likely result in lessors seeking to lock lessees at higher rentals for the longer term.

The high and low figures for October 2021 lease rentals represent adjustments for length of lease, the financial standing of the lessee and the return conditions. A longer lease to a stronger credit will likely result in lower rentals. These are not absolutes and sale and leaseback transactions may fall outside the figures indicated. Some transactions involving renegotiations on less popular aircraft may be considered exceptional and can fall outside the rental ranges. As aircraft age there may be less reliance on dry operating leases and greater emphasis on wet leasing or power by the hour agreements.

The rentals quoted below were prepared in late October 2021 in the context of the on-going Covid Event. The Covid Event has had a significant effect on the assumptions used. Prior to Covid, the assumed lease term of the applicable rental was considered to be reasonably long – perhaps ten years for a new widebody. This has now fundamentally changed. The lease rentals have continued to experience a considerable decline, but this has to be viewed in the context of a lease rental term that is now perhaps three to five years instead of the one to two years of 2020. With the slightly longer leases, after the initial reduction, the lessor will wish for lease rentals to rise by a number of steps or may seek an extension to the lease. This step-up arrangement or lease extension may therefore see the lease revenue virtually equate to pre-Covid levels over the term of the lease. Even if the lease expires in the next few years, subsequent rental agreements with either the existing lessee or a new lessee should be at a much higher level with longer terms, at least assuming that the right asset is selected. The market rentals quoted below therefore reflect a term of perhaps five to six years for narrowbody or three to four years for a widebody. A freighter may see a lease term of nine to ten years.

The exception to the trend for continued soft rentals relates to sale and leasebacks (SLB’s) and freighters. Even SLB’s may see a step arrangement as a means of alleviating the burden on the lessee. The SLB’s however, will likely feature a longer-term lease. For the freighters, the lease terms have not been unduly affected nor have the lease rentals. Indeed, prior to the Covid event, the freighters were suffering a malaise but have since experienced greater demand and allowed rentals to rise in some cases.

In addition to the commentary and lease rentals an indication of the Mid Case Lease Rate Factor (LRF), which expresses the current monthly rental as a percentage of the value, is also provided together with the relevant age of aircraft. The quoted future rental, expressed in thousands of dollars per month are Market not Base Rates and attempt to predict cyclic trends when supply will exceed demand and vice versa. Rentals may therefore experience a rise as well as a fall in any projected year. The future rentals – three and seven years from 2021 – are expressed in thousands of current dollars having been adjusted for inflation and are based on only the Mid Case projection rentals. The figures are for guidance only. M/R = Maintenance reserves are excluded and return conditions assume half-life.

The data has been extracted from the October 31st 2021 semi-annual Aircraft Values Basic 2021-2041, priced $1,750.00, by courtesy of The Aircraft Value Analysis Company. Telephone: +44 (0) 203 468 5594, Fax: +44 (0) 203 468 5596, E-mail: sales@aircraftvalues.net Internet http://www.aircraftvalues.net; www.aircraftvalues.com

YEAR October 2021$’000 per month excl. M/R FUTURE LEASE RATE
MID HIGH LOW 2024 2028
A300F4-200 (Converted). LRF 1980 = 5.8

The rates for the A300F/C4 are something of an irrelevance in view of only three being in active service even in these best of times. The experience of the type from the 1990s through to today however, gives an indication of the type of trend that lease rentals for converted freighters can experience in the 20 years from conversion. The first ten years from the point of conversion will likely see stability of rentals but after lease expires and due to advancing age, rates are likely to fall, particularly if conversions are no longer taking place.

1975 37 56 27
1977 39 59 28
1979 41 62 30
1981 43 64 31
1983 44 66 32
A300-600. LRF 1990 = N/A

The market for the -600 has been weak for a decade or more and as such placing a lease rental on the type is something of an irrelevant exercise. The type was always something of stop gap measure for Airbus. The A300B4 had been developed and they needed a steppingstone to a more flexible variant. The -600 was developed at the same time as the A310. The most notable advance was in terms of providing a two-person flight crew via an electronic centralized aircraft monitor. Indeed, the flight deck was created by car market Porsche. The wing was also improved, and the wingtip fences were added. Carbon brakes and new engine variants also featured. The range of the -600 was somewhat lacking particularly compared to the emerging B767ER and as such orders for the type were overshadowed by those for the -600R.

A300-600R. LRF 1992 = 5.4

A few -600Rs are still in service in Iran but of the 26 listed only some seven are active. The rates for the -600R – originally designated the A300B4-600ER – have been very low for a number of years, if not a decade. The -600R differs from the -600 in having a 1,620 U.S. gallon fuel tank installed in the horizonal stabilizer which necessitated a computerized fuel transfer system to maintain the center of gravity. The aircraft was able to be used on 180 minute operations which provided a measure of competition with the B767-300ER that was then entering service in the late 1980s. Placing the aircraft has become an issue and even spares may be an issue given the sanctions in place for some countries.

1987 21 31 14
1989 28 41 18
1991 34 50 22
1993 40 58 26
1995 45 66 29 13
1997 50 73 33 23
A300-600RF. LRF 2000 = 1.1

The A300-600RF originally attracted little interest from the cargo airlines because of the B747 and the glut of widebody passenger aircraft that were suitable for conversion (reminiscent of todays market). But in 19901 FedEx placed an order for 25 A300-600RFs which was later increased to 35. The A300 model always lent itself to the freighter role at least in terms of capacity not least because of its lower hold pallet and container capability. Because of the strength of the freighter market, rates have continued to remain steady but it must be recognized that the fleet is aging and once this peak passes there will be lesser enthusiasm for the type.

1994 95 138 71 71
1996 110 159 82 81
1998 120 175 90 91 62
2000 129 187 97 101 72
2002 137 199 103 111 81
2004 148 214 111 122 91
2006 156 226 117 131 100
A310-300SF. 157t CF6. LRF 1990 = 2.4

The market for the A310 freighter has always been lack luster. Airbus were particularly disappointed with only Martinair ordering a since A310-200C. Again, the lack of interest was a function of the market being flooded by surplus B747 freighter capacity in the 1980s. But it was in the 1990s that FedEx again placed an order for the conversion of 41 A310s which were delivered between 1994 and 1998. As FedEx moved to newer equipment in the previous decade, the A310 freighters lost their relevance with only some four now remaining in commercial and non-commercial service. The rates may be stable but they are at low levels.

1985 62 89 48
1987 65 94 50
1989 68 98 53
1991 70 102 55
1993 73 106 57
1995 76 110 59 34
1997 79 115 62 49
A220-100. LRF 2016 = 0.7

The market for the -100 has not been as buoyant as for the -300 but the Delta order has seen interest in the variant from a leasing perspective. The aircraft have been delivered to Comlux as the ACJ220, Delta and Swiss thus far but Air Vanuatu, Ibom Air, ITA, Odyssey have yet to receive their units with ALC, LCI and NAC being lessor customers. The delivery rate of the -100 has naturally been focused on the Delta order. The lease rentals have improved slightly but perhaps not to the same extent as the -300. The decline due to Covid has not been as severe as many other types because of its recent service entry and limited customer base. Some improvement should still be expected.

2016 168 210 138 173 143
2018 178 223 146 173 149
2020 188 236 155 181 159
A220-300. LRF 2016= 0.8

The market for the -300 is much more extensive having essentially taken over from the A319. There are still over 400 on order with a variety of operators and lessors. With some 150 already in service with Air Canada, Air France, airBaltic Air Tanzania, Delta, Egyptair, Iraqi Airways, JetBlue, Korean and Swiss, the operator base is expanding. In terms of those operating lease, some 43 are currently leased representing a third of the fleet. The lessors are still due to receive a number of -300s and as such the proportion leased can be expected to increase. The rates dropped by one of the least amounts due to Covid and a significant amount of the loss has been recouped. There are very few in storage.

2016 205 256 168 204 176
2018 218 272 178 204 183
2020 231 288 189 214 197
A318. LRF 2004 = 1.3

Even though the oldest A318 is just less than 20 years of age, some 31 have already been scrapped leaving 28 active and 21 inactive. The type has been used as the A318Elite but Air France continue to operate a number. There are 17 A318s that are leased with the majority being leased by Air France via FTAI Aviation. The market for the A318 has never been promising even less so for the PW6000 powered aircraft which soon suffered. The arrival of the A220 is already an issue for those remaining in service with perhaps the corporate role beckoning.

2003 38 45 28 32 18
2005 45 54 34 39 26
2007 52 62 39 46 33
2009 57 68 43 53 40
2011 64 76 48 60 47
A319HGW. LRF 2001 = 1.2

The lease rentals of the A319 have improved to some extent but any further improvement is only likely to be the result of an increase in interest rates than due to the recovery of the market. While lease rentals are still below pre-Covid projections for 2022, the emphasis is clearly on newer aircraft types given the price of fuel and availability of more capable assets in the form of the A220. There are some 453 on operating leases which are leased to 70 lessees but of these more than twenty percent – 100 units – are still in storage albeit being lower than the 120 of six months ago. However, the lessors and lessees are in abundance and this makes placement that much easier even if there has to be some flexibility with regard to rentals. With such a breadth of age then the older types do tend to drag down the lease rentals of the newer as there is little point in paying a substantive premium if the old and new do essentially the same job.

1996 47 61 37 29
1998 58 74 45 46 15
2000 68 87 52 55 28
2002 77 98 59 65 45
2004 86 110 67 74 54
2006 96 123 74 84 62
2008e 103 124 83 99 75
2010e 120 144 96 111 90
2012e 133 160 107 127 106
2014e 146 176 117 144 123
2016e 161 193 129 162 140
2018e 176 211 141 178 155
2020e 189 227 151 187 162
A320-200HGW. 77 tonne CFM56. LRF 2004 = 1.3

The longer an aircraft remains in storage the less likely that it is to return to service with three years being the usual measurement. Of course, the Covid Event is perhaps adding another year or eighteen months onto this metric but nonetheless a large number of older A320s will not return to service. The lower lease rentals that the older A320s attract have a negative effect on rates for the younger A320ceos. There are over 2,200 A320ceos which are leased to 208 lessees. Of these, 511 are inactive which is a slight improvement from the 535 of six months ago. The number inactive therefore still equates to nearly 25 percent and this is preventing a wholesale improvement in rentals as indeed is the delivery rate of new A320neos. The lessors are having to employ a number of tactics to keep aircraft with some lessees and extract at least some revenue but some lessees are not generating any revenue. Lessors need to keep aircraft with existing lessees rather than seek to move them on but sometimes there is no alternative to repossession.

1989 35 45 27
1991 61 79 47
1993 80 104 62 34
1995 95 123 73 46
1997 109 142 84 74 23
1999 122 159 94 97 41
2001 132 172 102 107 64
2003 139 181 107 115 81
2005 143 186 110 121 87
2007e 148 192 115 146 109
2009e 162 210 126 156 122
2011e 172 224 134 171 138
2013e 182 236 142 187 154
2015e 203 263 158 212 176
2017e 218 283 170 232 194
2019e 230 300 180 244 205
A320neo. LRF 2018 = 0.6

This is where the main focus of attention lies in terms of the recovery in lease rentals. Even though production rates are set to increase, the high price of fuel is forcing operators to seek the most efficient of aircraft. The lessors currently lease some 1,000 A320neos of which less than 90 are inactive clearly indicating the preference to operate. Air China AirAsia, Go First, HK Express, Tiajin Airlines, all have A320neos laying idle but some of these are in storage because of the certification issue. Nonetheless, it is important to note that the recovery process is not uniform and just as Covid featured a Mexican Wave effect in terms of closing air transport so too does the recovery fearture a similar pattern.

2015 241 313 188 227 193
2017 262 341 204 248 212
2019 283 368 221 267 228
2021 305 396 238 275 228
A321-100LGW. LRF 1999 = 2.2

The market for the -100 was never favorable and today there are only 45 in service of which a single unit is on an operating lease. The demand for the -100 was limited because the original users were mainly a few flag carriers. In the 1990s, the focus was on the 120-140 seat market with demand patterns not able to support 180 seaters. The range of the -100 was also limited and operators were pursing market share via frequency. Rates have not materially improved from the lows caused by Covid and nor are they expected to do so.

1994 27 34 23 9
1996 32 40 27 15
1998 36 45 30 24 3
2000 40 50 33 28 8
2002 44 54 36 32 15
2004 48 60 40 36 18
A321-200LGW. LRF 2001 = 1.2

The demand for the A321-200 may appear to be strong but this needs to be segmented. The older -200s, particularly with lower MTOWs, can see much lower than headline rates. The emphasis is therefore on younger -200s with SelectOne / SelectTwo or /3 and /3 PIP engines featuring at least a MTOW of 89 tonnes. Of the some 1650 serviceable units, some 721 are on operating leases. Of these 582 are active leaving 136 or 20 percent inactive. The move towards the A321neo is all evident as the operating economics are that much better. Nonetheless, the lease rates for the A321-200 have improved to some extent from the lows of nearly two years ago and there is room yet for a further improvement for those built after 2007.

1996 67 79 52 48
1998 84 100 66 71 29
2000 97 115 76 85 52
2002 107 127 84 97 71
2004 117 139 91 109 82
2006 128 152 100 121 94
2008e 150 177 127 146 116
2010e 168 198 142 157 130
2012e 183 216 155 175 149
2014e 197 233 168 193 168
2016e 213 251 181 213 188
2018e 230 272 196 230 205
2020e 247 291 210 240 213
A321neo. LRF 2016 = 0.7

There is now a growing emphasis on the A321 not least because there is no real competitor from Boeing. The higher weights of the A321neo offer much improved operating flexibility as do the more efficient engines. Combined with more seats, the A321neo is serving to skew the market towards larger seating capacities although the number of deliveries remains below that of the A320neo. Of the some 670 A321neos that have been delivered more than 500 are listed as being on an operating lease with only 42 being inactive. The 514 on operating leases are leased to 69 operators. The rates are improving and the XLR in 2023 will only improve the appetite for the A321neo. The ACF is now the standard but the discount for the non ACF is some two percent. This is because most operators do not require to operate the aircraft with more than 220 passengers.

2016 319 376 271 310 289
2018 329 388 280 323 306
2020 340 401 289 331 317
A330-200. LRF 2001 = 1.2

The A330-200 continues to face problems in terms of demand as indeed do most widebodies. The age distribution of the -200 was lending itself to replacement even before Covid and with the arrival of new types, lease rentals were already suffering. There may seem to have been a number reabsorbed back into the fleet and there have been a number of acquisitions but this has been on the basis of low rentals. The international market continues to suffer in terms of traffic and operators continue to store or dispose of older widebodies. Of the 220 -200s that are on operating lease, a third are in storage. Another 35 are on finance leases of which ten are in storage. Even those that are in service may be used on freighter flights or be experiencing very low load factors. The type will have great difficulty in recovering. However, there is an argument that the considerable reduction in the delivery rate of new widebodies means that are traffic builds again in the international markets there will be a shortage of capacity.

1998 78 96 64 66 27
2000 90 111 74 77 47
2002 101 124 83 90 65
2004e 109 126 95 101 76
2006e 142 164 124 132 106
2008e 172 198 149 163 134
2010e 200 230 174 194 162
2012e 227 261 198 225 190
2014e 256 295 223 257 221
2016e 284 326 247 290 251
2018e 310 356 269 322 282
2020e 334 384 291 349 307
A330-300HGW. LRF 2000 = 1.4

Production is coming to an end in favor of the -900 which is proving to be very capable. Of the some 750 -300s, nearly 300 are on operating leases and of these some 60 are in storage equating to 20 percent. Another 130 are on finance leases and of these 26 are in storage. Again, some continue to be used on solely freighter services which underlines the weakness of the passenger market. The lease rentals of the -300 were under pressure before Covid and while there has been a modest improvement, rates continue to be shadow of their former levels. The issue going forward is that as newer widebodies continue to be produced, there exists the possibility that the new aircraft will act as replacement capacity.

1994 82 97 67 42
1996 91 109 75 68
1998 105 125 86 93 42
2000 116 138 95 105 69
2002 125 149 103 115 90
2004e 178 212 151 159 128
2006e 221 263 188 202 165
2008e 260 309 221 242 201
2010e 295 352 251 280 236
2012e 328 390 278 317 271
2014e 356 424 303 352 306
2016e 382 454 324 386 341
2018e 403 480 343 413 371
2020e 422 502 358 428 388
A330-900. LRF 2017 = 0.8

A total of 70 have already been delivered even as delivery rates have slowed. The -900 is proving very popular with lessors with nearly 60 being on operating lease with more deliveries to lessors scheduled. For those in storage still, these are operated by Azul, Citilink, Garuda, Lion Air, Sunclass and Thai AirAsia with lessors of Avolon, Park, BOC Aviation and ALC. The lease rentals of the -900 fell due to Covid and have recovered to some extent but there remains a considerable difference with the rates being secured before Covid.

2017 601 715 511 608 524
2019 619 737 526 629 546
2021 637 758 542 637 553
A340-200. LRF 1996 = 2.7

A good aircraft – for a few. In recent “decades” it has served more as stop gap measure.

1993 40 49 34 12
1995 42 51 35 20
1997 44 53 37 23 4
A340-300ER 275t. LRF 2002 = 1.9

The four engines of the A340 provide some advantages in terms of eliminating the need for ETOPs. The type has been used as a temporary solution for operators waiting to receive newer twins. There were attempts to revive the -300 but these did not amount to much. Lease rentals are likely to only go in one direction.

1996 62 78 51 50
1998 68 85 56 56 25
2000 76 95 62 64 41
2002 83 104 68 72 47
2004e 88 106 74 77 53
2006e 90 109 75 81 56
2008e 92 111 77 83 59
A340-600I. LRF 2004 = 2.3

Placing a lease rental on the -600 is something of a futile exercise. There is only one on an operating lease to Air Atlanta Icelandic which is in storage. The SPV is LFC 444 Ltd. There are only eight in active service. The A340-500 is no longer of relevance.

2002 78 91 66 64 40
2004 107 125 91 93 63
2006 135 158 115 120 85
A350-900 268t 2014 = 0.8

The market for the -900 is perhaps among the strongest of any widebody. Of the approximate 400 that have been delivered – delivery rates have slowed during the pandemic – 60 are in storage. Of ther 407, a total of 174 are on operating lease and of these 42 are in storage. Another 53 are on finance leases of which none are in storage. The lease rentals of the -900 have improved to some extent from the lows of April 2020 but the recovery is slow even as this remains one of the most attractive of widebody leased assets. Lessors will be conscious that a re-engining of the -900 is likely in the latter part of the decade and as such the experience of the A330ceo should provide an indication of the how lease rentals may behave in the coming years. The -900 is no longer so new having been in service for nearly eight years.

2014 631 694 584 656 609
2016 700 770 647 768 721
2018 768 844 710 816 784
2020 837 921 774 883 857
A350-900ULR. LRF 2017 = 0.7

The ULR opens up all sorts of opportunities for operators – assuming that passengers can fly. Such long routes wearing a mask for the entire journey is perhaps not so attractive. There may be an issue in placing too much of a premium on the aircraft as there few operators who will wish to fully utilize such capability. This means that the -900ULR may be subsequently used as a normal -900 but at least the hour to cycle ratio will be very high. This is the aircraft that has a good future and is one which may be niche rather than marginalized which is the fate that befell the A340-500.

2018 814 895 753 889 847
2020 887 975 820 961 925
A350-1000. LRF 2017 = 0.8

The delivery rate of new -1000s is very low which is perhaps no bad thing in todays market. Of the 60 that have been listed as having been delivered only 16 are on operating leases with 30 being company owned and another 13 on finance leases. The size of the -1000 makes it less attractive to the lessors due to the limited number of potential operators. Lease rentals fell by a modest amount compared to other widebodies and have since improved. But with Hong Kong Airport recording only two percent of pre-Covid Event traffic in 2021, this underlines just how much the long haul market has been impacted.

2017 944 1039 873 946 806
2019 993 1093 919 987 843
2021 1044 1149 966 1029 867
A380LGW. LRF 2007= 0.9

There continues to be an attempt to talk up the A380 in terms of potential demand from ACMI operators but operating such a large aircraft is not easy with many difficulties if there should be an AOG. The configuration of the aircraft may also not lend itself to ACMI given the emphasis on first and business class. There has been no hint of any recovery – indeed, the reverse is occurring.

2007 207 230 193 209 170
2009 245 272 228 242 202
2011 280 311 260 284 241
2013 314 349 292 326 280
2015 350 388 325 370 321
2017 387 429 360 414 362
2019 422 468 392 447 392
A380HGW. LRF 2013=0.8

There is a clear concern that today not even parting out will generate the sort of revenue that was expected a few years ago. The type is being placed back into service by a number of operators and as traffic improves, more will enter service. The issue though is where will any unit go to once it leaves the existing operator – the scrap yard appears to be the only option. Lease rentals have continued to decline after suffering a 40 percent fall due to Covid.

2013 339 376 315 356 310
2015 376 417 350 402 354
2017 415 461 386 450 398
2019 452 502 421 485 431
2021 488 542 454 508 444
B717-200. LRF 2001 = 1.4

The B727 has long been a feature of the operating lease with BCC and Rolls-Royce Capital being the principal lessors. A third of the B717 fleet is still listed as being owned by lessors of which 20 are in storage. Even the youngest is now nearly 20 years of age and it should comes as no surprises that there should be little demand for the type given that it is twice removed from modern offerings in terms of engine technology.

1999 44 58 35 32 9
2001 48 62 38 35 15
2003 51 67 41 38 18
2005 55 72 44 42 21
B727-200HADV. LRF 1978 = 30.0

The market the -200HADV is surprising still evident if only just with a few in service. Lower utilization will keep the aircraft flying for a few more years.

1972 11 21 8
1974 15 27 11
1976 19 34 13
1978 23 41 16
1980 26 47 18
1982 30 54 21
B727-200FHADV. LRF 1978 = 15.9

The freighter still has considerable utility for a few operators but there are only some 34 in service. There are just too many out there to ignore. The type will be good for leasing for many more years though power by the hour arrangements will be preferable for some.

1972 35 60 23
1974 38 64 25
1976 40 68 26
1978 43 73 28
1980 46 78 30
1982 49 83 32
B737-200HADV. LRF 1978 = 13.1

The rates are at levels that make it difficult for lessors to consider going lower. Leases of any reasonable duration become more difficult to achieve.

1971 9 14 6
1973 15 25 11
1975 21 34 15
1977 26 41 18
1979 30 48 21
1981 33 53 23
1983 36 58 26
1985 40 63 28
B737-300HGW EFIS. LRF 1992 = 5.9

There is a clear danger that some lessors will get sucked into the B737-300 market once more because of the limited opportunities with respect to the neo and MAX but unless there is a long lease with a full payout to an established operator there will be risks. The rates have remained relatively stable but the market is not easy given the number on the market.

1985 30 37 25
1987 32 39 26
1989 34 41 28
1991 36 44 29
1993 38 46 31 9
1995 40 49 33 11
1997 42 52 34 15
1999 45 54 36 22
B737-300SF. LRF 1992 = 1.6

The Covid Event has perhaps had a twofold effect on the B737-300F/SF/QC. On the one hand it has created considerable demand for freighters but on the other hand it has accelerated the conversion of -800s to freighters. For the time being, the market is strong and lease rentals remain stable with the potential for rises in view of the pressure on interest rates.

1985 59 73 50
1987 62 77 52
1989 64 79 54
1991 66 82 56
1993 69 86 58 30
1995 73 91 62 48
1997 77 95 65 60 24
1999 80 99 67 63 38
B737-700HGW. LRF 2002 = 1.1

The -700 has seen much lesser demand in terms of new aircraft over the last decade. This means that a large number of -700s are between 10-15 years of age. The major lessors will therefore be seeking to dispose of the aircraft to keep their portfolio young while operators will be hoping to take advantage of the weak market conditions and lease newer and more efficient types. The lease rates have increased slightly but not to any great extent.

1997 63 78 54 46 14
1999 72 89 61 62 27
2001 80 98 68 71 44
2003 88 108 75 80 58
2005 96 118 82 90 66
2007/3 106 131 91 100 74
2009/3 124 153 106 119 91
2011/3 141 174 120 140 109
2013/E 159 195 135 161 129
2015/E 173 213 147 183 149
2017/E 187 230 159 203 167
B737-400HGW EFIS. LRF 1996 = 2.8

The market for the -400 was largely confined to acting as feedstock for freighter conversion in the last decade as operators have sought newer types. It must be remembered though that the production cycle of the -400 occurred mostly at the same time as the A320ceo was being produced. The lease rentals suffered as a consequence of the Covid Event and have only managed to recover some of the declines.

1988 32 39 26
1990 35 43 29
1992 38 46 31
1994 40 49 33 14
1996 43 52 35 17
1998 46 56 37 26 3
B737-400SF. LRF 1996 = 1.3

The demand for airfreight due to greater emphasis on internet shopping has enabled the -400SF to remain very much in demand with lease rentals improving as a result. The -800SF may be in service in numbers but thus far the displacement has been limited. The rates for the -400SF are expected to remain stable for the short term.

1988 91 112 76
1990 93 114 78
1992 95 117 80
1994 98 121 82 61
1996 102 125 86 77
1998 106 131 89 81 48
B737-800HGW. LRF 2002 = 1.2

The B737-800HGW continues to be demand. There are nearly 5,000 in existence still and of these nearly 50 percent are on an operating lease. Of the 2,200 on operating lease nearly 200 are in storage compared to the overall storage level of 480. With ten percent of the -800 fleet being in storage this is not that high in view of Covid. However, the problems with the MAX have served to delay the inevitable replacement of the -800 and the number in storage will therefore likely increase with the older being exposed. The lease rentals have increased to some extent but the ending of production and replacement with the MAX is now playing a role.

1998 114 140 97 99 42
2000 119 146 101 108 66
2002 122 150 104 116 86
2004 125 154 107 123 94
2006 131 161 111 131 103
2008/3 154 190 137 166 136
2010/3 167 206 149 192 161
2012/E 185 227 164 204 180
2014/E 193 238 172 216 195
2016/E 202 249 180 232 212
2018/E 213 262 190 246 226
2020/E 226 278 201 254 233
B737MAX8. LRF 2017 = 0.6

The market for the -8 is now improving as a more return to service and as production begins to mount. The lease rentals have improved to some extent but they are still not back to pre-Covid levels. The need for efficiency in an era of high fuel prices will ensure that the history of the MAX plays a lesser part in its acquisition. The order from Allegiant perhaps shows that new examples can still be acquired for an attractive price albeit impacted by inflation.

2017 259 336 202 254 221
2019 276 359 216 270 233
2021 294 383 230 275 233
B737-500HGW EFIS. LRF 1994 = 3.0

The smallest of the B737CG variants has long since lost its relevance. The lease rentals suffered in April 2020 and have recovered only slightly.

1990 22 26 18
1992 24 28 20
1994 26 30 22 7
1996 27 32 23 9
1998 29 34 25 14
B737-600LGW. LRF 2002 = 1.4

The -600 is now replaced by the much more relevant E195E2 and A220-100. The lease rentals of the -600 have been under pressure for a decade or more and lessors will be anxious to ensure that the type remains with the existing lessee rather than face the prospect of remarketing.

1998 26 30 22 19 4
2000 32 38 27 25 11
2002 38 44 32 30 16
2004 43 51 36 35 21
2006 49 57 41 41 26
B737-900. LRF 2004 = 1.0

There are only some 30 -900s in service with a single example listed as being on an operating lease with AerCap. The market for the -900 was always difficult as it was mostly designed for one or two operators.

2000 47 54 40 42 20
2002 50 58 43 46 31
2004 54 62 46 51 35
B737-900ER. LRF 2007= 0.9

The -900ER had much more success in the operating lease market although perhaps some lessors may now have regretted assuming that it was just a large -800. The market dynamics of the -900ER are totally different from the -800 and as such lease rentals are much weaker with the placement likely to be more problematic. There are nearly 150 leased even if less than 20 are in storage.

2006 108 124 95 103 71
2008/3 123 140 108 121 97
2010/3 135 154 119 140 114
2012/E 159 181 140 172 146
2014/E 170 193 149 195 168
2016/E 181 206 159 213 187
2018/E 193 220 170 229 203
2020/E 207 236 182 241 212
B747-200B. JT9D LRF 1979 = 13.0

The market for the -200B is nonexistent. Rates reflect the lack of attraction.

1971 9 16 7
1973 21 36 15
1975 27 46 20
1977 30 50 21
1979 30 51 22
1981 31 52 22
1983 31 52 22
1985 31 52 22
1987 31 52 22
B747-200SF. JT9D/PW4000 LGW LRF 1984 = 5.4

The -200SF is still wheeled out when nothing else is available. The aircraft acts as back up for some operators when a B747-400F or B777F is AOG. There is some validity in its occasional use but the cost of fuel is an issue given that jet fuel is increasing in price.

1975 26 37 19
1977 27 39 20
1979 28 40 21
1981 29 41 22
1983 30 43 23
1985 31 45 24
1987 33 47 25
1989 34 49 26
1991 35 50 26
B747-400. CF6 LRF 1993 = 2.1

The -400 is now seemingly consigned to being a backdrop for films as the Covid Event has accelerated its already predicted demise. As a vehicle for leasing, the aircraft was always seen as a risk by mainstream lessors. The number of potential operators is limited although some were perhaps leased as part of the larger leasing package. The rates collapsed due to the Covid Event. The lease rentals are perhaps whatever a prospective lessee wishes them to be.

1989 37 45 29
1991 44 54 35
1993 50 61 39 24
1995 54 66 43 35
1997 59 72 47 54 16
1999 64 78 51 60 28
2001 68 84 54 67 44
2003 72 88 57 72 49
B747-400M. LRF 1993 = 1.9

With freighter conversion no longer a realistic prospect the -400M has lost much of its attraction. The lease rentals of the type are falling and offer only a modest premium over the passenger version.

1989 91 107 78
1991 97 114 83
1993 101 119 87 62
1995 106 125 91 96
1997 112 132 96 104 48
1999 119 140 102 112 76
2001 125 147 107 120 83
B747-400F. LRF 1998 = 1.5

Some sense of proportion needs to be introduced. Before the Covid Event the lease rentals of the -400F were languishing due to limited demand. A number were in long term storage and some auctions took place. The Covid Event has therefore generated new sources of demand because of limited lower hold capacity on passenger aircraft. There needs to be a differentiation between the production freighter with the nose loading door and the converted freighters. The -400ERF also has a greater payload so will warrant a premium. With conversions of widebody twins there has to be element of caution with regard to future demand and lease rentals. Lessors will be well advised to seek long term leases.

1993 256 294 223 144
1995 284 327 247 192
1997 310 356 270 214 137
1999 336 386 292 236 184
2001 364 419 317 259 205
2003 394 454 343 283 227
2005 423 486 368 307 248
2007 449 517 391 330 270
2009 474 545 412 353 292
B747-8I. LRF 2012 = 0.8

The market for the -8I was always limited and as such it should not have come as a surprise that the Covid Event hastened its demise. The -8I is essentially a relic of the past although there exists the potential for conversion to VVIP. The type has suffered perhaps even more so than the A380 but again Lufthansa may be changing its mind as to the place of the type in its fleet.

2010 255 283 230 243 189
2012 277 308 250 265 211
2014 298 331 268 289 235
2016 319 354 287 316 260
2018 342 380 308 339 281
B747-8F. LRF 2011 = 0.9

The -8F is a great aircraft but the ending of production is now nigh. Lease rentals though remain strong in the current market and will continue to be attractive for some time yet. The demand for dedicated freighters is also a function of passenger aircraft not flying to many destinations or not with sufficient frequency.

2009 838 955 754 733 678
2011 929 1059 836 799 751
2013 1019 1162 917 881 836
2015 1111 1267 1000 974 932
2017 1206 1375 1085 1068 1029
2019 1304 1486 1173 1139 1103
2021 1400 1596 1260 1190 1142
B757-200 (220,000lbs RB211). LRF 1990 = 2.2

The B757 market continues to be viable even with the arrival of the A321 in ever greater numbers. Of the 800 that are still in service in one guise or another, some 520 are active. The proportion of those on operating leases is relatively small with less than 25 of which only seven are in storage. Some of those inactive aircraft have already been permanently withdrawn from service. The rates fell due to Covid and only a modest recovery is evident.

1982 33 41 26
1984 39 49 31
1986 45 56 35
1988 50 62 39
1990 53 67 42
1992 56 70 44
1994 59 73 46 38
1996 61 76 47 48
1998 63 78 49 50 27
2000 64 80 50 53 35
2002 66 82 51 55 37
B757-200ER (250,000lbs RB211). LRF 1994 = 2.0

The standard B757 may be vulnerable but the -200ER still has some utility given its ability to serve longer thinner routes. The A321 is naturally coming more to the fore not least as the LR and XLR. The lease rentals of the -200ER have suffered but have improved slightly.

1987 55 68 46
1989 58 72 48
1991 61 75 51
1993 63 78 52 34
1995 65 79 54 52
1997 66 81 55 54 23
1999 67 82 55 56 35
2001 67 83 56 58 38
B757-200SF. LRF 1992 = 1.4

There are approximately 70 B757 freighters on operating lease of which nine are in storage. The B757 freighter is able to survive because of its flexible performance and low utilization. The cost of engine overhauls is considerable at $4 million or more per engine. Moving to the A321F will likely be expensive but it should be noted that there is considerable overlap in terms of product life cycles between the A321 and B757 meaning that a A321F may not necessarily be any younger than a B757F.

1982 46 57 39
1984 67 83 57
1986 82 102 70
1988 93 115 79
1990 100 124 85
1992 104 128 88
1994 104 130 89 71
1996 104 130 89 87
1998 104 130 89 89 60
2000 104 121 83 89 75
2002 104 130 89 90 78
B757-300LGW. LRF 2001 = 1.2

There was an attempt to talk up the -300 before Covid and for very operators the stretch does work. The market has however moved to alternative types and the -300 has very few supporters such that lease rentals remain under pressure with no prospect of improvement.

1998 51 59 44 46 24
2000 55 64 47 51 34
2002 58 67 50 55 38
B767-200. LRF 1986 = 5.1

Even before Covid the market for the -200 was barely visible. The leasing of the passenger version has not relevant for many years.

1981 8 10 6
1983 12 15 10
1985 15 20 12
1987 18 24 15
1989 21 28 17
1991 25 32 20
B767-200ER HGW. LRF 1990 = 3.7

There are approximately 30 -200ERs in operation but only 13 are active. The number on operating leases number less than five. This means that the market for the few lessors is either strong or weak given the limited availability. The type though was only ever produced in small numbers and leasing has been sporadic. Rates fell by more than 30 percent due to Covid.

1984 38 47 32
1986 40 49 33
1988 41 51 34
1990 43 53 35
1992 45 55 37
B767-300. LRF 1992 = 2.5

The type has long since lost its relevance and lease rentals have been at rock bottom for many years.

1986 21 26 17
1988 24 29 19
1990 26 32 21
1992 28 34 22
1994 30 37 24 11
1996 32 39 25 18
1998 34 42 27 24 6
2000 36 44 29 26 11
B767-300ER HGW. LRF 1999 = 1.6

There has been much discussion over the -300ER in the last decade. The B787 initially forestalled replacement but then operators appreciated that the lesser payload/range of the B767 and lesser cost was not a disadvantage. But with Covid the vulnerability of the B767-300ER to changing market dynamics have been exposed not least because of the number being converted to freighters. There are approximately 70 -300ERs on operating leases of which 52 are in active service. As the market recovers some of those in storage will be brought back into service but by no means all will. The type is on the precipice and the abyss beckons – for the second or third time. The availability of more efficient equipment at far lower lease rentals – comparable rates to what has been paid for the -300ER – means that operators have lesser appetite. Lessors will be looking at extending leases for as long as possible rather than seek a new lessee.

1988 58 70 49
1990 78 95 67
1992 93 113 79
1994 105 128 90 62
1996 117 141 99 99
1998 129 156 110 111 61
2000 140 169 119 122 95
2002 150 181 127 133 106
2004 156 189 133 142 115
2006 160 194 136 149 123
2008 162 197 138 154 130
2010 162 196 138 157 136
B767-300F. LRF 2003 = 1.1

The lease rentals of of the -300F continue to improve as demand strengthens rather than weakens. The produciton freighter has higher rates than the -300SF. There are a large number of B767 freighters with over 350 being listed of which 48 are on operating leases. The lease rentals are expected to remain stable and even increase given the rise in interest rates.

1995 206 253 177 158
1997 227 279 195 171 122
1999 245 302 211 189 138
2001 263 323 226 207 155
2003 281 346 242 225 172
2005 303 373 260 246 191
2007 323 397 277 267 210
2009 340 418 292 286 229
2011 355 437 306 305 248
2013 368 453 317 323 267
2015 379 466 326 342 288
2017 387 476 333 359 310
2019 402 495 346 166 144
B767-400. LRF 2000 = 1.5

The -400 operates in the wings of the market given that few were built. The lease rentals have inevitably been impacted.

2000 71 83 61 60 40
2002 81 95 70 68 49
B777-200. LRF 2001 = 1.8

The -200 has always been in the wings failing to take center stage despite the best efforts of Boeing in the 1990s to promote the long range capability of the “-200A” initial variant. The lease rentals suffered by more than 30 percent due to Covid and there are no expectations of an improvement.

1995 48 56 39 30
1997 57 67 46 42 14
1999 65 76 52 49 27
2001 72 84 57 56 38
2003 79 92 63 63 45
B777-200ER. LRF 2001 = 1.8

Of the -200ERs in the fleet nearly half are inactive. The number of lessors has been falling as aircraft have been retired. There are 55 still listed as being on operating leases of which 34 are in active service. There are just too many alternatives and lease rentals are therefore continuing to fall. At one time, all the market could talk about was how good the -200ER. But that was nearly 15 years ago and the market has eclipsed the -200ER with new offerings.

1996 97 114 79 74
1998 119 139 96 92 65
2000 135 158 109 106 80
2002 148 173 119 120 93
2004 159 186 129 132 106
2006 170 199 138 145 119
2008 183 214 148 159 133
2010 194 227 157 171 147
2012 202 237 164 182 159
2014 208 244 169 193 171
B777F. LRF 2008 = 1.0

The most notable aspect of the B777F is that due to new emission rules production of the variant needs to end in 2027. This deadline has however not dissuaded customers from ordering a swathe of new examples. There are over 200 B777Fs in service and some 68 are on an operaitng lease. A freighter usually enjoys a premium in terms of lease rentals over a passenger aircraft and the lessors of such B777Fs will be enjoying double digit returns which may go some way to make up for the dire rentals for the B777-300ER. The B777X and A350F cannot be ignored in the medium term.

2008 744 818 655 717 583
2010 811 892 714 757 631
2012 873 961 769 822 698
2014 934 1028 822 899 773
2016 997 1097 878 980 854
2018 1065 1171 937 1052 927
2020 1137 1250 1000 1103 977
B777-300. LRF 2003 = 1.6

The market for the -300 has always been difficult. ANA, Cathay, JAL and Korean are the major operators. Lease rentals have been suffering for years and they have fallen still further. This is an aircraft that will be difficult to place once it leaves the fleets of existing operators.

1998 127 147 104 111 63
2000 138 160 113 119 84
2002 147 170 120 126 91
2004 155 180 127 136 101
2006 163 189 134 146 111
B777-300ER. LRF 2004 = 1.2

The market for the -300ER has been turned upside down over the last three years. Even before the Covid Event, lease rentals were sliding and over the last two years they have registered a fall in excess of 30 percent. Of the over 800 -300ERs active/inactive 290 are on operating leases but only 42 are in storage. A number will be in operation as freighters but given the parking of B747-400s and A380s, the -300ER will have taken over these roles, not least also because of lower load factors. Nonetheless, the B777X and A350-1000 are issues that need to be considered. Retirement beckons.

2003 300 339 264 291 251
2005 364 412 320 344 305
2007 423 478 372 401 362
2009 478 540 420 461 421
2011 532 601 468 521 481
2013 587 663 516 583 544
2015 644 728 567 649 610
2017/E 748 845 658 823 771
2019/E 766 865 674 858 812
2021/E 785 887 691 873 829
B787-8. LRF 2011= 0.9

The market for the -8 has been difficult for a number of years. Boeing tried to reboot the variant through streamlining production and offering lower pricing but this failed to generate the envisaged returns and lease rentals have suffered. Even before Covid, the lease rental of a new B787-8 had fallen from nearly $1m per month to less than $700,000 per month. There is always a concern that the initial variant of an all new model, particularly one employing new technology, would be usurped by a more capable offering – in this case the -9. There are nearly a 100 on operating lease with 18 lessees.

2010 376 439 338 374 328
2012 407 476 366 407 368
2014 435 509 391 458 420
2016 464 543 418 503 469
2018 498 583 448 546 515
2020 535 626 481 578 547
B787-9. LRF 2014 = 0.8

Nearly half of the -9 fleet is on an operating lease. Operators have of course been seeking to generate revenue by whatever means and a sale and leaseback offers some respite. Only 21 of those on operaitng lease are in storage. The hiatus in deliveries of the B787 continues and this has kept demand for those in operation reasonably high. The lease rentals have increased to some extent and continue to do so as the -9, along with the A350-900, represents the most desirable of widebodies.

2014 639 748 585 715 679
2016 685 802 627 773 750
2018 730 855 668 845 830
2020 779 911 712 892 882
B787-10. LRF 2018 = 0.7

The lease rentals of the -10 suffered to a lesser extent than many other widebodies largely because there were so few in service at the start of the Covid Event. The problem going forward is that there are relatively few operators capable of supporting the aircraft and those that can prefer to buy new. The range of the -10 is also limited and as Boeing seeks to improve this, the first generation -10s will be at a disadvtange. Only soime 15 of the 60 -10s in service are on operating leases bbut there remain a number of lessors orders yet to be fulfilled.

2018 844 988 773 958 897
2020 869 1017 795 1026 953
Avro RJ85. LRF 1998 = 5.1

There are very few RJ85s on operating leases. The age of the aircraft is such that retirement should be expected not least because of the ready availability of much more efficient twin engined regional jets. The lease rentals suffered to some extent due to Covid but they were already at low levels.

1993 33 41 25 8
1995 35 44 28 14
1997 38 47 30 17
1999 40 50 31 19
2001 42 52 33 20
Avro RJ100. LRF 1998 = 4.8

The Avro RJ100 enabled operators to offer a near mainline service. There was always some ebb and flow to the RJ100 market. Twin engined regional jets were always likely to be favored over the four engines of the RJ unless the latter offered unique performance.

1993 34 43 27 9
1995 38 47 29 15
1997 41 51 32 19
1999 44 55 34 21
2001 46 58 36 23
Canadair CRJ200ER. LRF 2001 = 3.4

The 50 seat market was always vulnerable to the actions of the U.S. operators. The lease rentals have been under pressure for more than a decade not least because of the move to higher capacity equipment. The rise of electric powered aircraft will see the 50 seat market being targeted as is already the case as re-engining projects gain momentum.

1996 12 16 10 1
1998 17 21 13 5
2000 21 26 16 9
2002 24 31 19 12
2004 28 35 22 16
Canadair CRJ700ER. LRF 2002 = 1.9

Canadair was acquired by Boeing, then by Bombardier and now by MHI. The CRJ700ER took some time to come to market despite demand from some operators of the CRJ200ER. The lease rentals are weaker but perhaps not as much as for some larger regional jets.

2000 44 54 36 37 22
2002 49 60 40 41 25
2004 54 65 44 46 31
2006en 65 77 56 57 43
2008en 74 88 64 67 54
2010en 82 96 70 76 65
2012en 88 104 75 85 75
2014en 93 110 80 93 85
2016en 98 116 85 102 94
Canadair CRJ900ER. LRF 2002 = 1.8

There may some enthusiasm for restarting production of the CRJ900 by MHI but perhaps an electric version could be considered. The CRJ900 meets the scope clause limitations but heavy discounting in the final years of production impacted both values and lease rentals.

2002 52 60 46 43 25
2004 57 66 50 47 32
2006en 74 85 64 66 49
2008en 81 93 71 74 58
2010en 87 100 75 82 67
2012ng 95 110 83 100 83
2014ng 104 120 91 106 91
2016ng 112 129 97 116 102
2018ng 119 137 104 126 112
2020ng 126 145 110 131 117
Canadair CRJ1000. LRF 2011 = 1.0

The CRJ1000 offered much promise but being too large to meet the scope clause limitations meant that orders mostly depended on non U.S. operators. Lease rentals continue to suffer with only a modest recovery from the lows of April 2020 being evident.

2009 79 89 71 80 66
2011 88 99 78 87 75
2013 96 108 86 96 86
2015 104 116 92 107 97
2017 111 125 99 117 108
2019 119 133 106 124 117
ERJ135ER. LRF 2001 = 2.9

The lease rentals of the ERJ135 were already low before Covid and are now even lower with perhaps an emphasis on corporate operations. The type could be viewed as suited to the electric market although range would be limited.

1999 16 19 13 4
2001 20 24 17 7
2003 24 29 20 13
2005 28 33 23 17 1
ERJ145ER. LRF 2001 = 3.1

Some 100 are still on operating leases but of these nearly 30 are in storage. The type has experienced some volatility and lease rentals have suffered during the Covid Event even as the U.S. domestic market quickly recovered.

1996 21 25 17 7
1998 23 29 19 11
2000 26 32 21 14
2002 28 35 23 16
2004 31 37 25 19 1
2006 33 40 27 21 4
Embraer 170. LRF 2005 = 1.6

The true 70-76 seaters were perhaps eclipsed by the 80-86 seaters quite quickly as it became apparent that Scope creep was contained. The 70 seaters were therefore too small for the U.S. market. Some operators have sought to offer lower seating capacities. The lack of an E2 version underlines the issues with this type of capacity.

2003 54 61 48 40 27
2005 68 77 60 53 39
2007 78 89 69 63 51
2009 86 98 76 72 61
2011 93 106 82 80 70
2013 101 114 89 88 80
2015 107 121 94 97 90
Embraer 175. LRF 2006 = 1.3

The Enhanced version has enjoyed considerable success in the U.S. and while lease rentals were initially impacted by Covid they quickly improved as the type was put back into service. However, the concentration in the U.S. is a negative going forward. The orderbook is also relatively healthy not least because of the inability of the competition to negate the scope clause limitations even in the context of offering much better environmental compliance.

2004 63 71 55 49 36
2006 78 88 69 64 51
2008 90 102 79 76 64
2010 100 112 88 87 76
2012 108 122 95 97 88
2014E 133 151 117 127 117
2016E 140 158 123 137 129
2018E 144 163 127 143 136
2020E 147 166 129 144 137
Embraer E190. LRF 2006 = 1.4

The lease rentals of the E190 were suffering even before Covid and as such the events of 2020 only exacerbated the negatives. However, there has been some improvement in the last two years not least because lease rentals have fallen which have gone some way to mitigating the relatively high cost of engine overhauls. Lease rentals have therefore risen but by a modest amount.

2005 70 79 62 57 41
2007 90 102 80 72 57
2009 105 119 94 86 72
2011 117 132 104 98 85
2013 125 141 111 108 97
2015 132 149 118 118 109
2017 139 158 124 127 120
2019 148 167 131 134 127
Embraer E190E2. LRF 2018 = 0.7

The orders for the E190E2 have failed to inspire the leasing community and rates remain weak. There are only six on operating lease. With the E190E2 being too large in terms of capacity and weight to meet scope clauses, then the type is dependent on orders from the rest of the world which have proved elusive. The collapse of the tie-up with Boeing has not helped.

2018 179 194 165 166 144
2020 213 230 196 198 168
Embraer E195. LRF 2008 = 1.2

The E195 may have garnered a lesser number of orders than the E190 but to some extent there has been greater stability even of rates fell significantly due to Covid. The type however, remains on the periphery of the market and rates are taking time to recover as surplus units are re-absorbed. The move to the larger and more efficient E195E2 is a clear threat and will limit the ability of lease rentals to recover from the falls recorded last year.

2006 79 90 71 66 53
2008 97 110 87 79 68
2010 111 125 99 92 84
2012 121 137 108 104 98
2014 130 147 115 114 111
2016 137 155 122 124 124
2018 145 164 129 132 135
Embraer E195E2. LRF 2018 = 0.7

The E195E2, being larger and offering better seat mile costs, has thus far secured more orders than the E190E2. There are approxiimately 16 on operating lease with AerCap, ICBC, and Aircastle being the principal lessors. The type may yet secure more orders but the A220-100 offers considerable competition. The rates are slowly improiving.

2018 189 204 174 172 151
2020 228 246 210 210 180
MD90. LRF 1997 = 7.1

The MD90 market has been weak for many a year but the Covid Event has accelerated the process and ever more have been placed into storage, never to see a return to any type of service.

1994 37 46 28 7
1996 38 48 29 12
1998 40 50 30 13
MD11SF. LRF 1996 = 2.3

FedEx is bringing another MD11F back into service. Serial number 48801 was previously operated by Lufthansa who retired its last MD11F in the third quarter of 2021. The FedEx fleet of MD11Fs now comprises some 57 excluding the Lufthansa aircraft. Three other ex-Lufthansa aircraft had previously been acquired by FedEx. A total of 16 of the 19 Lufthansa MD11Fs are now owned by FedEx, UPS or Global Airlines, the three operators of the type. UPS had acquired five and Western Global, three. The values of the MD11F experienced a significant fall in 2008 in the wake of the financial crisis but then so did the values of many freighters including the B747-400F.

1990 53 67 42
1992 54 69 43
1994 57 73 46 37
1996 60 76 48 39
1998 63 80 50 42 22
2000 65 83 52 44 25
SUPERJET. LRF 2009 = 1.4

The demand for used Superjets was limited in the first instance and Covid has only served to exacerbate an already difficult situation. The lease rentals are largely theoretical given the dominance of the Russian market.

2009 69 78 55 59 46
2011 77 86 62 65 54
2013 82 92 66 70 63
2015 85 95 68 75 70
2017 86 96 69 79 76
2019 87 97 70 80 80
2021 88 99 71 80 79

 

 

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