FOR CURRENT &
FUTURE AIRCRAFT VALUES

Assumptions

June 25, 2018

The listing of current and future values is based on the year of build. The essential assumption is that the aircraft are being sold as a single unit and between a willing seller and willing buyer for cash. The high and low figures represent adjustments for offer and sale prices, financing arrangements, specification differences, maintenance status and condition. These are not absolutes and distressed sales as well as sale and leaseback transactions may fall outside the figures indicated. Some transactions involving distressed sales on fully run out aircraft are considered exceptional and can fall outside the value ranges. Scrap values are also likely to fall outside the indicated range of values. Quantity discounts, particularly for the larger equipment, will attract sizeable discounts.

The values quoted below were prepared in late April 2018 in the context of a modestly improving market. The values listed below are Market Values not theoretical abstract Base Values and seek to balance transaction pricing, where available, and the considered worth of the asset. The Market Value is therefore not merely a reflection of the latest lowest available datapoint. The quoted future values are Market not Base values and attempt to predict cyclic trends when supply will exceed demand and vice versa. Values may therefore experience a rise as well as a fall in any projected year. In addition to values, the original source for Aircraft Ratings is included for all aircraft types. The Aircraft Ratings – the first to be created and forming the industry standard – ranging from highest A++ to the lowest E–, reflect The Aircraft Value Analysis Company’s (AVAC) opinion as to the relative attraction of the asset over the short to medium term and is determined by a number of variables ranging from product life cycles to current and projected levels of availability.

The future values – four and seven years from 2018 – are expressed in current dollars having been adjusted for inflation approximating 2.0 percent (lower in the immediate years) and are based on the Mid Case current market values (AVAC also produce Best and Worst case projections reflecting different probability levels). The figures are for guidance only and are not intended to reflect actual recent market transactions – assuming that any reliable data exists. Rather the values represent the considered worth of the aircraft tempered by the prevailing market conditions.

The data has been extracted from the April 30th 2018 edition of the semi-annual Aircraft Values Basic 2018-2038, priced US$1,475.00 for 12 months web site access, by courtesy of The Aircraft Value Analysis Company. Telephone: +44 (0)203 468 5594, Fax: +44 (0)203 468 5596, pleighton@aircraftvalues.net; www.aircraftvalues.net; www.aircraftvalues.com

YEAR April 30th 2018 FUTURE VALUE Inflated
MID LOW HIGH 2022 2025
A300B4-200. Aircraft Rating: N/AThe A300 may no longer be relevant in itself but the type is of importance in terms of what will probably occur in the future. The A300B4 was the first aircraft that Airbus produced and at the time of service entry, was largely dismissed as something of an irrelevance when considering the dominance of Boeing and McDonnell Douglas and to a lesser extent Lockheed. However, within some 20 years McDonnell Douglas was no more and Boeing were wrestling will Airbus. China has developed their own A300B4 – the C919. Russia and China are now also looking at a widebody. With the ambitions of China and a trade war the incentives to accelerate the process is that much greater.
N/A
A300F4-200 (Converted). Aircraft Rating: EThe 1990s was the era of the freighter when many types were being converted and the A300F4 was no exception. And was partially successful in the short to medium term and provided service for a good number of operators for many years. Values though have been a rock bottom for the last decade and even a recovery in the airfreight market cannot translate into a recovery.
1975 1.04 0.57 1.48 - -
1977 1.10 0.61 1.56 - -
1979 1.16 0.64 1.65 - -
1981 1.22 0.67 1.73 - -
1983 1.28 0.70 1.81 - -
A300-600. Aircraft Rating: E-It takes time for a new manufacturer to achieve the desired result and the -600 was a stepping stone in that process. The values of the variant never really recovered from being side stepped when it came time to the freighter conversion market. The range of the aircraft was always limited though in some ways that it is what the market needs now – high capacity but short to medium range capability. The values of the -600 have been at parting out levels for too long and asset value is not something that comes to mind when considering the -600.
1985 0.73 0.37 1.03 - -
1987 0.88 0.45 1.25 - -
1989 1.03 0.52 1.46 - -
1991 1.18 0.60 1.67 - -
A300-600R. Aircraft Rating: EThe values of the -600R have been at scrap levels for some time and the number remaining in service is limited. In terms of asset attraction there is little commend the type. The -600R provided a number of operators with greater capacity for medium haul sectors but always struggled against the B767-300ER. There have already been over 100 retirements of the -600 and -600R and a few have been converted to freighters. There are many medium haul routes that require capacity – the U.S. to South America for example. While a number are parked there are actually relatively few that are actually on the market at any one time.
1987 1.29 0.71 1.68 - -
1989 1.68 0.93 2.19 - -
1991 2.07 1.14 2.69 - -
1993 2.47 1.36 3.20 0.75 -
1995 2.86 1.57 3.71 1.24 -
1997 3.25 1.79 4.22 1.66 0.66
A300-600RF. Aircraft Rating: D-The values of the -600RF have managed to remain stable over the last quarter because of the improvement in the airfreight market although the youngest will be most exposed to further falls. The aircraft may no longer be viewed as a frontline aircraft like the B767-300F but the regional capability and volume are still held in sufficiently high regard. In 2006 a new -600RF had a new price of more than $65 million but since then more than two thirds of its value has been lost. Most of the decline has been absorbed so there was expected to be a measure of stability.
1994 7.39 6.21 9.31 4.73 3.21
1996 9.90 8.31 12.47 6.47 4.52
1998 12.41 10.42 15.63 8.25 5.88
2000 14.91 12.53 18.79 10.08 7.28
2002 17.42 14.64 21.95 11.95 8.75
2004 19.93 16.74 25.11 13.90 10.30
2006 22.44 18.85 28.27 15.93 11.95
A310-200. Aircraft Rating: E-The Boeing B797 really aims to fill this gap. Any small widebody has implications for drag and therefore relative inefficiency. There is no real market for the -200 and has not been for a decade if not more. The type was converted in numbers by FedEx leaving few left in the passenger role. There is no future for the type except as a Museum exhibit.
1982 0.46 0.27 0.62 - -
1984 0.56 0.32 0.75 - -
1986 0.66 0.38 0.88 - -
1988 0.75 0.44 1.02 - -
A310-300LGW. 153t. CF6. Aircraft Rating: E+The decline in the -300 fleet over the years says it all. The aircraft was converted to freighter but a reasonable number remained in the passenger role. The aircraft performs well at least for some operators but in terms of asset value, such a concept has long since passed for the -300.
1985 0.46 0.27 0.64 - -
1987 0.79 0.48 1.11 - -
1989 1.13 0.68 1.58 - -
1991 1.47 0.88 2.05 - -
1993 1.80 1.08 2.52 0.45 -
1995 2.14 1.28 2.99 0.80 -
1997 2.47 1.48 3.46 1.25 0.38
A310-300HGW 164t. CF6. Aircraft Rating: E+Boeing will be working hard to create a longer range version of the B797. The market may not need such an aircraft today but when the B797 arrives in 2025, the market structure will have changed such that if the A310 was in production it would be much in demand. As a widebody on longer sector, passenger comfort can be enhanced particularly in terms of business class.
1988 1.45 0.90 2.00 - -
1990 1.85 1.15 2.55 - -
1992 2.25 1.39 3.10 - -
1994 2.65 1.64 3.65 1.35 -
1996 3.04 1.89 4.20 1.60 0.69
A318. CFM56. Aircraft Rating: D–The values of the A318 have held steady although only by virtue of having fallen by so far. There were a few built after 2006 but these are experiencing considerable value convergence whereby the values of the youngest converge on the oldest rather than the latter continuing to fall. The type is too heavy for the regional operators and does make enough use of expensive resources such as pilots for the majors.
2003 4.98 3.64 5.68 3.02 2.07
2005 6.90 5.04 7.87 4.35 3.14
2007 8.83 6.44 10.06 5.74 4.27
2009 10.75 7.85 12.25 7.20 5.50
2011 12.67 9.25 14.44 8.76 6.84
A319HGW. 70t. Aircraft Rating: C+While the values of the A319 have declined to some degree the type is held in reasonable regard even if new orders are elusive and production has been negligible in recent years. The CSeries is seeing good service and the type is gaining credibility which is a concern for the A319 going forward particularly with Airbus taking over the program.
1996 5.12 3.77 6.04 2.99 1.18
1998 6.57 4.85 7.75 3.96 2.24
2000 8.02 5.92 9.47 4.94 3.27
2002 9.48 7.00 11.19 5.95 4.02
2004 10.93 8.07 12.90 7.00 4.82
2006 13.31 9.82 15.44 8.96 6.16
2008En 14.98 12.88 15.80 10.00 7.12
2010En 19.16 16.48 20.22 13.17 9.58
2012En 23.35 20.08 24.63 16.58 12.31
2014En 27.53 23.68 29.05 20.21 15.35
2016En 31.72 27.28 33.46 23.67 18.43
A319ER. 75.5t. Aircraft Rating: C+The true A319ER comes with additional fuel tanks rather than just the additional weight and it is the tanks that usually warrant a premium. The CSeries – or A210/A220 as it may be called – will represent a real challenge for the A319 such that the type may quietly slip away.
2002 6.36 4.83 7.31 3.77 1.54
2004 7.76 5.90 8.92 4.71 2.70
2006 9.16 6.96 10.54 5.66 3.78
2008En 15.97 13.74 16.77 10.68 7.62
2010En 20.24 17.41 21.25 13.93 10.14
2012En 24.51 21.08 25.74 17.41 12.94
2014En 28.78 24.75 30.22 21.13 16.05
2016En 33.05 28.42 34.70 24.67 19.22
A320LGW. 73.0T -A1/-5A1/-5B4. Aircraft Rating E/B–There are even V2500-A1 still being advertised for lease which is remarkable as these aircraft are worth a negative amount given the costs associated with recycling. There are a number of A320s on the market which may surprise some who assume that the extensive backlog is the end of the story. The older vintage aircraft are available in numbers and at very low prices. There is no future for the type and even $4m now seems high given that this is for a 20 year old aircraft.
1988 0.95 0.67 1.19 - -
1990 2.63 1.84 3.29 - -
1992 4.31 3.02 5.39 1.36 -
1994 5.99 4.19 7.48 2.78 1.01
1996 7.67 5.37 9.58 4.81 2.07
1998 9.34 6.54 11.68 5.98 3.58
2000 11.02 7.72 13.78 7.17 4.98
2002 12.70 8.89 15.88 8.40 5.92
2004 14.38 10.07 17.97 9.67 6.91
2006 16.06 11.24 20.07 11.00 7.98
2008En 19.72 16.37 21.29 14.07 10.47
2010En 24.15 20.05 26.08 17.70 13.41
2012En 28.59 23.73 30.87 21.61 16.67
2014En 33.02 27.41 35.66 25.79 20.31
2016En 37.45 31.09 40.45 29.73 23.99
2018En 41.89 34.77 45.24 33.28 27.68
A320-200HGW. 77.0 tonne CFM56. Aircraft Rating: B–Despite the reservations concerning the older A320s powered by earlier engines, the A320 overall has confounded some of the critics by virtually being considered an equal to the B737-800. The values however, can be variable but overall the aircraft is managing to shrug off the negative effects of the A320neo not least because of the problems surrounding the new type. The higher price of fuel though is not in the favor of the A320ceo. Most A320s produced in recent years feature not only sharklets but an increasing number also include SpaceFlex and therefore 186 seats which warrants a premium.
1990 2.27 1.59 2.84 - -
1992 3.97 2.78 4.96 1.17 -
1994 5.66 3.96 7.07 2.24 -
1996 7.35 5.15 9.19 4.06 1.64
1998 9.05 6.33 11.31 5.80 3.00
2000 10.74 7.52 13.43 7.01 4.85
2002 12.44 8.70 15.54 8.24 5.79
2004 14.13 9.89 17.66 9.52 6.78
2006 15.82 11.08 19.78 10.85 7.83
2008En 20.36 18.12 21.88 14.54 10.83
2010En 24.93 22.18 26.80 18.28 13.85
2012En 29.50 26.25 31.71 22.31 17.22
2014En 34.06 30.32 36.62 26.61 20.97
2016En 38.63 34.38 41.53 30.67 24.76
2018En 43.20 38.45 46.44 34.33 28.57
A320neo. 73.5t. Aircraft Rating: B++It all seemed to be too good to be true and alas, it was. By opting for a new engine and minimal other changes, a smooth service entry seemed assured. Any niggling problems with the new engines would soon be resolved. This has not been the case and aircraft still lay idle absent any engines. To date, values of the A320neo have not really been impacted by the debacle and there is still no differential between the LEAP and the PW1100 but whether this can be continued remains to be seen. There will be ever more customers who will select SpaceFlex which warrants a $900,000 premium for the 186 seat version. Some have attributed only a $1-2 million premium over the A320ceo but in reality the differential is nearer $4m as will become evident with inevitably higher fuel prices.
2015 39.76 36.58 41.35 31.91 25.83
2017 45.98 42.31 47.82 37.14 30.89
A321-100LGW. Aircraft Rating: E++Any value that resides in the A321-100 is firmly focused on the engines and the early marques of the CFM and V2500 are particularly exposed. There are only some 60 -100s remaining in commercial service and the vast majority of these reside in Europe and within Alitalia.
1994 2.30 1.68 2.76 0.89 0.20
1996 3.12 2.27 3.74 1.71 0.59
1998 3.93 2.87 4.72 2.25 1.17
2000 4.75 3.47 5.70 2.80 1.73
2002 5.56 4.06 6.68 3.37 2.15
2004 6.38 4.66 7.65 3.96 2.59
A321-200LGW. Aircraft Rating: C++/B—Operators are increasingly aware that the A321 can offer a gauge change in capacity without overstretching resources. The growth in traffic cannot be met by the delivery of more aircraft alone but by a change in seating capacity. The values of the A321ceo have fallen by a modest amount but overall the release of a number of examples and their very quick uptake on the used market illustrates the popularity of the aircraft now and going forward. The arrival of the A321neo is an issue given the extra range and additional capacity but values of the A321ceo are falling by no more than the average. The A321 is much more favored than the B737-900ER.
1996 5.88 4.53 6.58 3.65 1.74
1998 8.39 6.46 9.39 5.37 3.62
2000 10.90 8.39 12.20 7.13 4.93
2002 13.40 10.32 15.01 8.94 6.29
2004 15.91 12.25 17.82 10.80 7.72
2006 18.42 14.18 20.63 12.75 9.24
2008En 22.16 18.28 24.16 15.93 11.80
2010En 27.70 22.86 30.20 20.45 15.41
2012En 33.25 27.43 36.24 25.31 19.42
2014En 38.79 32.00 42.28 30.49 23.89
2016En 44.33 36.57 48.32 35.40 28.42
2018En 49.87 41.15 54.36 39.87 32.97
A321neo. 89t. Aircraft Rating: B++The A321neo not only reaffirmed the change in the market structure which increasingly favors larger aircraft but also clearly took Boeing by surprise and has left the U.S. manufacturer scrambling to provide a credible response. The new door configuration may alllow for 240 plus seats but there exists some mystery over who has actually ordered such aircraft. The LR is particularly favored though any thoughts of allowing a $5+ million premium over the 93.5 tonne version will not be well received in the wider market. The values will likely perform better than average though there will be improvements to both engine types in the coming years.
2016 52.78 49.08 55.41 44.43 37.64
2018 58.12 54.05 61.03 48.96 42.72
A330-200. Aircraft Rating: C–/C+The used market for the A330-200 is still reasonable but values are continuing to fall as the type eases out of mainstream production in favor of newer types. The aircraft has seen considerable volatility since it was introduced some 20 years ago but values are certainly on the way down. There are always a number in storage and as yet Airbus has not secured a commitment for the follow on A330-800 although this may be soon. The 238 tonne version warrants a $0.75 million premium. The 242 tonne version offers even greater versatility but this has not prevented a slippage in values.
1998 12.06 9.53 13.27 6.93 4.34
2000 14.84 11.72 16.32 8.67 5.52
2002 17.61 13.91 19.37 10.46 6.76
2004En 27.73 21.91 30.78 17.25 11.72
2006En 35.46 28.01 39.36 22.48 15.49
2008En 43.19 34.12 47.94 27.96 19.53
2010En 50.92 40.23 56.52 33.77 23.93
2012En 58.65 46.33 65.10 40.06 28.85
2014En 66.38 52.44 73.68 46.78 34.35
2016En 74.11 58.54 82.26 53.03 39.87
2018En 81.83 64.65 90.84 58.59 45.36
A330-200F. Aircraft Rating: C++The backlog has all but dissipated and the fleet is limited but the wider revival of the airfreight market is something that has provided some relief. The Etihad fleet was parked but it now seems these are destined to be acquired by a Chinese operator albeit at presumably an attractive rate. Qatar has also indicated that leases will not be renewed for its aircraft in 2019 and instead routes will be serviced by the B777F.
2010 53.82 45.21 58.12 39.22 30.32
2012 60.45 50.78 65.29 45.36 35.62
2014 67.09 56.35 72.46 51.93 41.56
2016 73.72 61.93 79.62 57.94 47.46
2018 80.36 67.50 86.79 63.18 53.29
A330-300HGW. Aircraft Rating: C– / B–The market for the A330-300 is perhaps increasingly fragile although the type has a very expansive operator base. The reason for the fragility lies with the age profile and introduction of the A330-900. There are still though a reasonable number of orders for the A330-300. The market for the aircraft may see lower prices. The concern over rentals being paid is now an issue which is further impacting values as the service entry of the A330-900 approaches. A new -300 has a value of less than $97 million which compares with $108 million a few years ago. Such a fall in new net pricing has to have an effect on used values. There have been some 50 retirements of A330s.
1996 10.63 8.08 11.69 6.31 3.11
1998 13.03 9.91 14.34 7.87 5.34
2000 15.44 11.73 16.98 9.46 6.52
2002 17.85 13.56 19.63 11.11 7.75
2004He 35.96 29.13 38.83 21.55 15.02
2006He 44.74 36.24 48.32 27.30 19.27
2008He 53.52 43.35 57.80 33.32 23.83
2010He 62.30 50.46 67.29 39.73 28.81
2012He 71.08 57.58 76.77 46.67 34.39
2014He 79.86 64.69 86.25 54.10 40.62
2016He 88.65 71.80 95.74 60.96 46.86
2018He 97.43 78.92 105.22 67.03 53.06
A340-200. Aircraft Rating: E++The A340-200 continues to be an issue for any owner. The type has long since been marginalized even if it was used as a stop gap measure in previous years. The values are now at scrap levels and escaping from such a black hole is impossible.
1993 3.48 2.79 3.62 1.64 -
1995 4.11 3.28 4.27 2.33 0.98
1997 4.73 3.78 4.92 2.75 1.67
A340-300LGW. Aircraft Rating: E++The values of the A340-300 may be low but to some extent they may be higher than for some A340-500s and -600s! The values are falling and the youngest are falling the fastest. Even with the efforts of the OEMs a recovery was never likely due to the four engines and the exposure to the volatility of fuel prices.
1993 3.14 2.33 3.46 1.22 -
1995 4.06 3.01 4.47 1.94 0.76
1997 4.98 3.68 5.48 2.46 1.42
1999 5.90 4.36 6.49 2.99 1.80
2001 6.82 5.04 7.50 3.53 2.18
2003 7.74 5.72 8.51 4.09 2.59
2005En 15.01 12.46 15.99 8.97 6.30
2007 En 16.83 13.97 17.93 10.26 7.32
A340-500LGW. Aircraft Rating: D–Now that the U.S. has prevented Iran from receiving its new aircraft, the A340-500 may be viewed with greater relish once more. this would be most welcome for a type that has increasing been exposed to the negative aspects of the market due to its four engines. The long range capability was not enough as newer twins can service the same routes at much lower costs. The market for the aircraft is limited with ad hoc charters perhaps being more credible.
2002 7.04 5.49 8.10 4.09 2.66
2004 11.32 8.83 13.01 6.83 4.66
2006H 17.90 13.96 20.58 11.19 7.90
2008H 22.44 17.50 25.80 14.36 10.33
A340-600L. Aircraft Rating: D–Again the values of the -600 have all but collapsed as units enter the used market. Any buyers – such as they are – are all too aware of the problems of operating four engined aircraft even with the benefit of such a low capital cost. It seems that the values of the A340-300 are actually higher. While the -600 is not suited to all routes it can be viable on selected routes where the four engines can be a positive rather than a negative – flying over mountains for example or eliminating the need for ETOPs. Eventually less than 100 aircraft were delivered making it marginalized.
2002 7.24 5.79 8.33 4.32 2.83
2004 12.13 9.71 13.95 7.52 5.16
2006 17.02 13.62 19.58 10.83 7.63
A350-900. Aircraft Rating: B++The decline in the values of the A350-900 match the average annual decline of 7-8 percent now that the first flurry of deliveries has passed and the aircraft is achieving a measure of maturity. For new aircraft the values are remaining steady. The aircraft is considered to be one of the most desirable of widebodies at least in the short to medium term as illustrated by the B++ rating.
2014 110.84 100.87 115.28 78.58 58.53
2016 129.17 117.55 134.34 92.97 70.88
2018 147.51 134.23 153.41 106.21 83.38
A350-1000. Aircraft Rating: BThe A350-1000 has arrived. There are still questions over the capacity of the aircraft being a match for the B777-300ER rather than the B777-9. Airbus argue that operators do not need more space to merely carry more marginal economy passengers. Larger aircraft are only economical if they can be filled with the right mix of passenger yields – more seats will not automatically translate into better efficiency.
2018 166.74 157.57 172.57 127.00 105.37
A380IGW 569t. Aircraft Rating: C-The used market has been established. HiFly is to acquire some units and ex-SIA aircraft are to be parted out for a reported $80 million. The values have continued to fall and these latest developments overshadow the recent additional order from Emirates. The $80 million should not apply to all aircraft whatever their vintage but some with a stated aim of providing discounted market values to meet the needs of conservative minded clients, will likely do so. There continue to be some sale and leaseback deals that wish to see values considerably higher than $250 million.
2007 93.21 77.36 97.40 58.48 43.62
2009 117.17 97.25 122.45 75.11 56.73
2011 141.14 117.15 147.49 92.85 71.13
2013 165.10 137.04 172.53 112.20 87.41
2015 189.07 156.93 197.58 131.52 104.58
2017 213.04 176.82 222.62 148.98 121.55
B717-200. Aircraft Rating: DThe B717 is a good aircraft – for a few operators. To date those few have been willing to pay a premium for the aircraft. A number of aircraft will likely remain with existing operators until being parted out. Airbus will likely succeed in taking the CSeries and making it an Airbus product, something that Boeing had no wish to do which was a shame as the MD95 was a great aircraft that had the potential to be stretched whereas the B737-600 was a compromise from the start as it was downsized.
1999 5.04 4.28 6.30 2.63 1.34
2001 5.76 4.89 7.20 3.07 1.61
2003 6.48 5.50 8.10 3.53 1.91
2005 7.19 6.11 8.99 4.01 2.22
B737-300HGW EFIS. Aircraft Rating: EThe market for the -300 is far from strong not least because the youngest is now all but 20 years of age and therefore ripe for parting out. The quality units are still in demand although lower utilization will do much to help with reliability and fuel costs.
1985 0.91 0.56 1.23 - -
1987 1.07 0.65 1.44 - -
1989 1.22 0.74 1.65 - -
1991 1.37 0.84 1.85 0.25 -
1993 1.53 0.93 2.06 0.34 -
1995 1.68 1.02 2.27 0.57 0.07
1997 1.83 1.12 2.47 0.84 0.21
1999 1.99 1.21 2.68 0.94 0.36
B737-300SF. Aircraft Rating: D++A great aircraft that is still overshadowed by the -400SF. The -300SF remains favored in both the -300F and -300QC guises. The values of the aircraft are stable even if there remains an issue of age when seeking to place the aircraft. There exists considerable demand on a regional and domestic basis not least because of the increase in internet shopping. Disparate distribution warehouses cannot always be serviced by road. The development of the A320/B737-800 freighter conversion programs are a notable event and will impact the type in the medium term.
1986 3.12 2.19 4.22 - -
1988 3.58 2.51 4.84 - -
1990 4.04 2.83 5.46 - -
1992 4.50 3.15 6.08 1.79 -
1994 4.96 3.47 6.70 2.81 1.01
1996 5.42 3.79 7.32 3.12 1.68
1998 5.88 4.12 7.94 3.44 2.20
B737-700HGW Wing. 153,000lbs. Aircraft Rating: C+/C++Production of the -700 has all but ceased and the MAX7 has received a few orders. The used market is primarily focused on older and mid life aircraft and for some, this represents an opportunity given that there is still a need for the aircraft for those seeking to replace older -300s.
1997 7.38 5.76 8.41 4.50 2.20
1999 9.04 7.05 10.31 5.62 3.71
2001 10.70 8.35 12.20 6.78 4.56
2003 12.36 9.64 14.09 7.97 5.45
2005 14.02 10.94 15.99 9.21 6.39
2007 15.68 12.23 17.88 10.51 7.40
2009/3 18.61 15.44 21.03 12.37 8.90
2011/3 22.00 18.26 24.86 15.05 11.03
2013/3 25.39 21.07 28.69 17.98 13.45
2015/E 30.45 26.79 32.58 22.12 16.96
2017/E 34.40 30.27 36.81 25.16 19.82
B737-400HGW EFIS. Aircraft Rating: E+A good aircraft but for an ever decreasing number. The type is being sought after for those seeking a good candidate for conversion. As more aircraft are released there will be an issue with regard to who will acquire them even in this most buoyant of markets.
1988 1.21 0.87 1.56 - -
1990 1.53 1.10 1.98 - -
1992 1.85 1.33 2.39 0.45 -
1994 2.18 1.57 2.81 0.72 0.13
1996 2.50 1.80 3.22 1.15 0.34
1998 2.82 2.03 3.64 1.51 0.63
B737-400SF. Aircraft Rating: C-The market for the -300SF continues to be reasonable and values are therefore holding steady. Despite the age of the fleet – far greater than 20 years of age – the limited utilization will ensure continued use for more years yet. The -400SF is the more attractive proposition and values are holding steady as demand is strong and more conversions are taking place. There is little opportunity for an improvement given the weight of the competition in the coming years. The development of the A320/B737-800 freighter conversion programs are notable events.
1988 5.39 3.94 7.17 - -
1990 6.04 4.41 8.04 - -
1992 6.69 4.89 8.90 3.30 -
1994 7.34 5.36 9.76 4.36 1.99
1996 7.99 5.83 10.63 4.80 3.18
1998 8.64 6.31 11.49 5.26 3.53
B737-800HGW Winglets. Aircraft Rating: B– / B-The values of the -800 may be falling but the aircraft remains most desirable. The older aircraft may have benefitted from high engine prices in the past but with the remaining green time on such engines being eroded then there has to be a measure of realism. There can be no escaping that the oldest -800s are now nearly 20 years of age which means that sub $10 million values are becoming ever more common. Even with the introduction of the B737-8 in numbers the market for the -800 is still reasonably strong. The later built -800s have better engines and reliability. The move to freighter conversion will keep availability to manageable levels. The average seating capacity is increasing such that it is now well beyond the envisaged 150 seats.
1998 10.32 8.25 11.66 6.23 4.38
2000 12.59 10.07 14.22 7.73 5.54
2002 14.86 11.89 16.79 9.28 6.75
2004 17.13 13.70 19.35 10.89 8.03
2006 19.40 15.52 21.92 12.56 9.39
2008 21.67 17.33 24.48 14.33 10.86
2010/3 27.44 23.05 30.18 18.95 15.09
2012E 33.62 28.91 35.63 24.23 19.67
2014E 38.08 32.75 40.37 28.34 23.47
2016E 42.55 36.59 45.10 32.17 27.29
2018E 47.02 40.44 49.84 35.58 31.10
B737-8 Aircraft Rating: A-The aircraft has been introduced in quantity and deliveries are gathering momentum – contrasting with the A320neo. Values of the B737-800 are strong and will likely remain so particularly in a high fuel cost environment. But as the years progress and with ever greater production quantities, values will fall.
2017 51.42 49.36 53.99 41.71 34.02
B737-500HGW EFIS. Aircraft Rating: EThe appetite for the -500 has diminished in the last decade and is no longer so much in demand in Eastern Europe. The type has been increasingly displaced by ever newer and larger aircraft and this is having a dire effect on values. This segment of the market to the mainline manufacturers is not so relevant as it once was as the regional jets increase in size.
1990 1.21 0.89 1.53 - -
1992 1.49 1.10 1.89 0.31 -
1994 1.76 1.30 2.24 0.53 0.04
1996 2.04 1.51 2.59 0.87 0.21
1998 2.32 1.72 2.95 1.16 0.44
B737-600LGW. Aircraft Rating: D–The -600 is a marginalized aircraft and has been virtually since being designed. The values of the aircraft mostly reflect the value of the installed engines although most of these are the non Tech Insertion variant. This segment of the market Only 69 were produced and only some 50 remain in service with others having already been scrapped. Those DAC powered aircraft that have been upgraded to -7/3s or -7E however, warrant a sizeable premium.
1998 3.38 2.40 3.78 1.76 1.00
2000 4.52 3.21 5.07 2.47 1.52
2002 5.67 4.02 6.35 3.19 2.06
2004 6.81 4.84 7.63 3.95 2.63
B737-900. Aircraft Rating: D–The values of the -900 are ever lower and are a shadow compared to those assigned to the -800. The operator base is very limited. A few have winglets installed which are more of interest to the existing operator than the wider market. There are only 52 in service. Size does not dictate relative values either when entering service or later on.
2000 7.59 6.00 8.12 4.62 3.06
2002 8.81 6.96 9.43 5.47 3.69
2004 10.03 7.93 10.74 6.36 4.37
B737-900ER. Aircraft Rating: C-/CThe -900ER continues to be an issue in terms of the operator base. In contrast to the A320/A321 there is little differential in value between the B737-900ER and the B737-800 (although the value of the A320 is lower). There remain some to be delivered but remarketing may not be so easy as for the A321. Yet, as the years progress operators will be seeking to upsize from the B737-800 so there may be some interest.
2007/3 20.55 16.44 21.99 14.10 10.25
2009/3 24.15 19.32 25.84 16.97 12.53
2011/3 27.75 22.20 29.70 20.05 15.05
2013/3 31.36 25.08 33.55 23.43 17.92
2015/E 38.93 32.31 41.66 28.42 23.65
2017/E 44.10 36.61 47.19 32.40 27.70
B747-200SF. JT9D/PW4000 LGW Aircraft Rating: E–There is little to commend the type to the investor community.
1976 0.40 0.15 0.68 - -
1978 0.50 0.19 0.84 - -
1980 0.59 0.22 1.01 - -
1982 0.69 0.26 1.17 - -
1984 0.78 0.30 1.33 - -
1986 0.88 0.33 1.49 - -
1988 0.97 0.37 1.65 - -
1990 1.07 0.41 1.81 - -
B747-300. Aircraft Rating. E–There is nothing of relevance for the -300. Values have long been at levels whereby one of the few means of disposal seems to be via a donation to a museum.
1983 0.30 0.13 0.42 - -
1985 0.33 0.14 0.47 - -
1987 0.36 0.16 0.51 - -
1989 0.40 0.17 0.56 - -
B747-400. CF6 Aircraft Rating: D–The fall in popularity is notable over the last decade and the values have collapsed in more recent years as operators have divested themselves of the type. The aircraft has been increasingly displaced by newer types. There exists some possibility that conversion to freighter will take place but this will not prevent values from falling further. Operators have been less enthusiastic in carrying marginal economy passengers and have instead been seeking to improve yields aboard more efficient twins. The values of the -400 will continue to fall. Age and efficiency are against the type. Aircraft are being parted out in a number of locations.
1989 3.26 2.18 3.91 - -
1991 4.43 2.96 5.31 1.47 -
1993 5.59 3.74 6.71 2.69 0.94
1995 6.75 4.52 8.10 3.84 1.80
1997 7.92 5.30 9.50 4.58 2.98
1999 9.08 6.08 10.90 5.35 3.55
2001 10.25 6.86 12.30 6.14 4.14
2003 11.41 7.64 13.69 6.96 4.77
B747-400D. Aircraft Rating: E–The experience of the -400 illustrates all too easily the dangers of producing a variant for a limited market. The type quickly moved into the marginalized segment of the market.
1991 1.49 1.09 1.73 0.27 -
1993 2.08 1.52 2.42 0.69 -
1995 2.68 1.95 3.11 1.29 0.38
B747-400F. Aircraft Rating: CThe market for the -400F has improved and values may warrant an actual rise. The nose loading door is still seen as most desirable as this enables very quick loading and unloading as well as greater flexibility in terms of the type of payloads carried. There are still some converted units in storage but these will be returned to service if growth rates are maintained.
1993 14.94 11.50 16.43 8.46 -
1995 18.35 14.13 20.18 10.53 7.20
1997 21.76 16.76 23.94 12.63 8.74
1999 25.18 19.38 27.69 14.79 10.34
2001 28.59 22.01 31.45 17.01 12.01
2003 32.00 24.64 35.20 19.31 13.77
2005 35.41 27.27 38.95 21.70 15.64
2007 38.83 29.90 42.71 24.23 17.66
2009 42.24 32.52 46.46 26.93 19.88
B747-400BCF. Aircraft Rating: CThe market for the BCF is not as good as for the -400F because of the lack of a nose loading door. Yet, as the -400F is put to work and availability falls to zero then the -400SF/BCF is next in line.
1989 11.79 8.25 14.27 - -
1991 13.13 9.19 15.88 5.00 -
1993 14.46 10.12 17.50 7.99 -
1995 15.79 11.06 19.11 8.81 5.19
1997 17.13 11.99 20.72 9.66 6.82
1999 18.46 12.92 22.34 10.52 7.50
2001 19.80 13.86 23.95 11.42 8.22
2003 21.13 14.79 25.57 12.36 8.98
B747-8F. Aircraft Rating: B–Boeing is managing to keep production of the -8F going and has been fortunate to some extent in that the airfreight market has improved. The issues over trade may more focus on goods transported by surface than airfreight. Values are still falling while those for new are failing to advance.
2010 108.65 92.35 112.99 73.89 60.34
2012 124.54 105.86 129.53 87.19 72.30
2014 140.44 119.38 146.06 101.40 85.64
2016 156.34 132.89 162.59 114.57 99.01
2018 172.24 146.40 179.13 126.25 112.32
B747-8I. Aircraft Rating: D++Production of the leviathan has ceased in a passenger format which is a sad day for the industry. The values of used aircraft are therefore exposed and the rate of decline can be expected to accelerate in the coming years. With only 47 orders and deliveries the type is particularly marginalized. There must be a concern as to where the aircraft will go when they come onto the used market. Conversion to freighter is the obvious solution. There have eight -8Is built as VVIP aircraft.
2011 93.48 75.72 97.22 57.60 45.06
2013 108.79 88.12 113.14 69.26 55.11
2015 124.09 100.51 129.05 80.88 65.71
2017 139.39 112.91 144.97 91.35 76.16
B757-200 (RB211). Aircraft Rating: D-The market for the B757 is relatively stable although there has been a slight fall recently as operators move to newer aircraft, sometimes downsizing in the process. Conversion to freighter is still possible. The aircraft has to be well maintained and the cost of engine overhauls can still be a drain on cash. The Pratt & Whitney engine is not so disadvantaged as longer on wing life offered by the RB211 is not so relevant given the product life cycle of the type. The lower utilization of the aircraft will also extend life and improve reliability.
1982 1.90 1.31 2.39 - -
1984 2.55 1.76 3.21 - -
1986 3.20 2.21 4.03 - -
1988 3.85 2.66 4.85 - -
1990 4.50 3.10 5.67 - -
1992 5.15 3.55 6.49 2.31 -
1994 5.80 4.00 7.31 3.14 1.37
1996 6.45 4.45 8.13 3.55 2.28
1998 7.10 4.90 8.95 3.97 2.59
2000 7.75 5.35 9.77 4.41 2.92
2002 8.40 5.80 10.59 4.85 3.27
B757-200ER (250,000lbs RB211). Aircraft Rating: D-Even though some of the more modern narrowbodies can fly across the Atlantic, the -200ER is still preferred. Winglets improves efficiency still further. The A321neo is not too distant in terms of range. The B797 is progressing but for the time being operators will have to settle for the B737-10 or more likely the A321.
1987 3.73 2.76 4.55 - -
1989 4.36 3.23 5.32 - -
1991 5.00 3.70 6.10 1.86 -
1993 5.63 4.16 6.87 3.07 -
1995 6.26 4.63 7.64 3.47 1.86
1997 6.89 5.10 8.41 3.88 2.51
1999 7.53 5.57 9.18 4.30 2.83
2001 8.16 6.04 9.95 4.73 3.17
B757-200SF. Aircraft Rating: C-The demand for the -200SF and PCF remain strong and even the arrival of the B737-800BCF will not easily usurp the B757. The aircraft may be old but with low utilization its efficiency is maintained.
1982 2.22 1.75 2.57 - -
1984 3.42 2.70 3.96 - -
1986 4.62 3.65 5.36 - -
1988 5.82 4.60 6.75 - -
1990 7.02 5.55 8.14 2.93 -
1992 8.22 6.50 9.54 5.01 -
1994 9.42 7.44 10.93 5.83 3.25
1996 10.63 8.39 12.33 6.66 4.48
1998 11.83 9.34 13.72 7.51 5.12
2000 13.03 10.29 15.11 8.39 5.79
2002 14.23 11.24 16.50 9.31 6.50
B757-300LGW. Aircraft Rating: E++A seemingly good idea at the time for a few operators but the wider airline industry was not convinced. The -300 may give a clue to the design of the MoM design – a narrow aisle does not lend itself to high volume single aisle seating.
1998 5.76 4.32 6.33 3.48 2.35
2000 7.00 5.25 7.70 4.33 3.01
2002 8.24 6.18 9.07 5.21 3.70
B767-200. Aircraft Rating: E+The type may be lacking a replacement but values are at parting out levels.
1981 0.27 0.14 0.33 - -
1983 0.43 0.22 0.53 - -
1985 0.59 0.30 0.72 - -
1987 0.75 0.38 0.91 - -
1989 0.91 0.46 1.11 - -
1991 1.07 0.54 1.30 0.22 -
B767-200ER HGW. Aircraft Rating: E+The market for the -200ER remains tough even if neither Airbus nor Boeing have a replacement. The aircraft is now some 30 years of age and retirement has been beckoning for some years. There are a few in service and the lack of a direct replacement makes it more difficult to contemplate retirement but retention does not necessarily translate into asset value.
1984 1.77 1.11 2.14 - -
1986 1.98 1.24 2.39 - -
1988 2.18 1.37 2.64 - -
1990 2.39 1.50 2.89 - -
1992 2.59 1.63 3.13 0.89 -
B767-300. Aircraft Rating: E+For many years the B767-300 managed to hang onto the coat tails of the -300ER before losing its grip and for values to enter into freefall. The limited operator base was always an issue and the type was never really suited to freighter conversion. As a D check approaches this may the point at which the operator says enough is enough.
1986 1.27 0.81 1.45 - -
1988 1.60 1.03 1.83 - -
1990 1.94 1.24 2.21 - -
1992 2.27 1.45 2.59 0.74 -
1994 2.61 1.67 2.97 1.26 0.35
1996 2.94 1.88 3.35 1.69 0.68
1998 3.27 2.09 3.73 1.93 1.11
2000 3.61 2.31 4.11 2.17 1.29
B767-300ER LGW. Aircraft Rating: D–The -300ER LGW has more limited payload/range but in comparison with the cost of newer aircraft, it offers considerable advantages. The reasonably low cost of fuel is something that is an advantage. The lower net cost of the A330-200 represents competition as will any restarting of production.
1988 2.87 2.12 3.24 - -
1990 3.56 2.63 4.02 - -
1992 4.25 3.14 4.80 1.46 -
1994 4.94 3.65 5.58 2.44 0.86
1996 5.63 4.17 6.36 3.28 1.53
1998 6.32 4.68 7.14 3.75 2.42
2000 7.01 5.19 7.93 4.23 2.78
2002 7.71 5.70 8.71 4.73 3.16
B767-300ER HGW. Aircraft Rating: D-Boeing seems to have made the right decision with respect to not proceeding with a production restart even if it is worried about the A330neo. The aircraft still has some life left even if values are set to fall further. The -300ER continues to be very much part of the worlds fleet and allows operators to carry passengers over a large number of routes at low capital cost. The 407,000lb or even the 412,000lb versions of the -300ER have of course been much more popular as the payload range is better. In terms of IFE and passenger preference there may be some negativity.
1988 3.58 2.61 4.15 - -
1990 5.71 4.17 6.62 - -
1992 7.83 5.72 9.09 3.29 -
1994 9.96 7.27 11.56 5.95 2.34
1996 12.09 8.83 14.02 7.33 4.24
1998 14.22 10.38 16.49 8.74 6.01
2000 16.35 11.93 18.96 10.19 7.09
2002 18.48 13.49 21.43 11.69 8.23
2004 20.60 15.04 23.90 13.24 9.43
2006 22.73 16.59 26.37 14.87 10.71
2008 24.86 18.15 28.84 16.59 12.11
2010 26.99 19.70 31.31 18.45 13.67
2012 29.12 21.26 33.78 20.51 15.45
B767-300ERF. Aircraft Rating: CBoeing is now focusing on the -300F and some orders continue to be placed but at what price? The values have managed some stability of late. Low utilization will keep them current for that much longer. The expansion of internet services is already translating into demand for the type. Most of course are operated by the small package operators in the U.S. which perhaps provides a measure of concern when remarketing occurs.
1995 12.54 10.78 13.91 7.95 5.22
1997 15.63 13.44 17.35 10.06 6.71
1999 18.72 16.10 20.78 12.22 8.26
2001 21.81 18.76 24.21 14.44 9.86
2003 24.90 21.42 27.64 16.73 11.55
2005 28.00 24.08 31.08 19.11 13.35
2007 31.09 26.74 34.51 21.61 15.27
2009 34.18 29.40 37.94 24.28 17.39
2011 37.27 32.06 41.37 27.19 19.76
2013 40.37 34.71 44.81 30.43 22.51
2015 43.46 37.37 48.24 33.55 25.35
2017 46.55 40.03 51.67 36.14 28.03
B777-200. Aircraft Rating: D–The values of the B777-200 have continued to decline at a faster than average rate. The age profile shows that most were delivered before 2000 which increases the potential for retirement when they enter the market. The type enjoyed the Ripple Effect for perhaps too many years but eventually the whirlpool dragged down values to a more appropriate level.
1995 4.51 3.25 5.06 2.59 1.13
1997 6.02 4.34 6.75 3.58 2.30
1999 7.53 5.42 8.44 4.59 3.04
2001 9.04 6.51 10.13 5.62 3.81
2003 10.55 7.60 11.82 6.68 4.62
B777-200ER. Aircraft Rating: DValues of the -200ER continue to exhibit a massive fall as values catch up with market realities. There is no interest in used -200ERs except at scrap prices. The type has been increasingly usurped by the A330-300 hence Boeings concern given that it has no answer at present. The A330-300 on the used market is a factor though it could equally be argued that it is the low cost of -200ERs that has prompted lower -300 values. The weights can vary and engine type plays a significant role. There has been concern that the Trent powered aircraft may be less liquid but transactions still take place for the specific airframe/engine combination. The majority have a weight in excess of 632,000lbs.
1996 9.01 6.40 10.46 5.53 3.60
1998 12.89 9.15 14.95 8.09 5.43
2000 16.76 11.90 19.44 10.71 7.31
2002 20.63 14.65 23.93 13.41 9.28
2004 24.51 17.40 28.43 16.19 11.35
2006 28.38 20.15 32.92 19.08 13.55
2008 32.25 22.90 37.41 22.14 15.92
2010 36.13 25.65 41.91 25.40 18.54
2012 40.00 28.40 46.40 28.97 21.49
B777-200LR. Aircraft Rating: DNot only have the values of the -200LR collapsed but the Aircraft Rating has fallen two places. With the arrival of long range non specific ULRs then the market for such aircraft as the B777-200LR has largely dissipated. For too long the premium applied to the -200LR has been too high and values are now at a more appropriate level relative to the -200ER. With 59 delivered and non on backlog, the type has limited appeal.
2005 28.02 20.45 30.26 18.31 13.11
2007 32.59 23.79 35.20 21.71 15.74
2009 37.16 27.13 40.13 25.31 18.61
2011 41.74 30.47 45.07 29.20 21.79
2013 46.31 33.80 50.01 33.48 25.44
B777-200LRF. Aircraft Rating: B-The market for the B777F remains surprisingly strong as some operators still intend to convert options for firm orders as the market structure shifts towards larger aircraft. The values of the B777F are falling as age takes its toll along with the arrival of other types – both new and converted. Boeing has not announced a B777X freighter but this may be in the offing given the need to stimulate orders in the early years of the next decade.
2008 79.56 62.85 84.33 60.64 45.92
2010 93.20 73.63 98.79 72.72 55.80
2012 106.84 84.41 113.25 85.81 66.86
2014 120.48 95.18 127.71 99.80 79.21
2016 134.12 105.96 142.17 112.77 91.58
2018 147.77 116.73 156.63 124.27 103.90
B777-300. Aircraft Rating: D–The values of the B777-300, having already fallen in recent years, are perhaps falling by a lesser amount than is being experienced by some other members of the B777 family. Membership of the “B Group” – B757-300, B767-300, B767-400, B777-200, B747-8I – is not something that should be sought after given that it represents a marginalized aircraft which features higher than average residual value deterioration.
1998 11.22 8.08 12.11 7.33 5.11
2000 15.36 11.06 16.59 10.24 7.29
2002 19.51 14.05 21.07 13.23 9.57
2004 23.66 17.03 25.55 16.31 11.95
2006 27.80 20.02 30.03 19.52 14.49
B777-300ER HGW 775,000lbs. Aircraft Rating: B– / B-The values of the -300ER are now falling by an appreciable amount. This is because used aircraft are coming onto the market at relatively low prices facilitated in part by the significant discounts that the larger customers were able to secure. The arrival of the B777-9 is not too distant and Boeing is having to cut production to reflect lesser demand. The values of new examples are now fortunate to be more than $157 million and those built a decade ago are now worth less than half that amount. The 775,000lb version is by far the most popular weight selection and there is an Enhanced version that was introduced in late 2016.
2003 51.85 42.52 56.00 33.21 24.30
2005 66.13 54.22 71.42 43.04 31.84
2007 80.41 65.93 86.84 53.29 39.86
2009 94.68 77.64 102.26 64.10 48.54
2011 108.96 89.35 117.68 75.70 58.14
2013 123.24 101.06 133.10 88.44 69.07
2015 137.52 112.76 148.52 101.02 80.53
2017/E 153.30 124.18 165.57 113.22 92.62
B787-8. Aircraft Rating: B–The fall in the values of the -8 is likely to accelerate further in the coming years as it becomes increasingly apparent to the wider market that the first B787 variant was perhaps over priced. The number of new order placements is limited and some can be expected to enter the used market in the near future. Lease rentals on new aircraft can be below $700,000 for the right lessee. The production standard of -8s now being produced is set to more align with that of the -9.
2011 72.62 61.00 77.71 51.65 37.42
2013 86.17 72.38 92.20 63.33 46.69
2015 99.71 83.76 106.69 75.04 56.49
2017 113.26 95.14 121.19 85.71 66.23
B787-9. Aircraft Rating: A–There has been speculation that American secured order pricing of $110 million versus the new single unit value of $145 million. The values of the -9 – as the most popular widebody – have fallen by only a modest amount to date. The greater capacity and range is hard to resist particularly as reliability has much improved. The Trent engines are providing something of a headache for some operators but the TEN variant offers some relief.
2014 105.13 92.51 111.43 70.59 53.02
2016 124.16 109.26 131.61 84.65 65.08
2018 143.19 126.01 151.78 97.66 77.33
B787-10. Aircraft Rating: B+The B787-10 represents a significant improvement in terms of capacity but range has been compromised in the interests of ensuring a smooth entry into service. There is therefore speculation that the range will be increased which may leave the early units exposed.
2018 156.93 146.72 163.20 113.87 88.31
Avro RJ85. Aircraft Rating: E++The era of the Avro RJs has long since passed and values are falling as a result.
1993 1.46 1.02 1.68 0.55 -
1995 1.52 1.07 1.75 0.69 0.16
1997 1.59 1.11 1.83 0.73 0.26
1999 1.65 1.16 1.90 0.78 0.29
2001 1.72 1.20 1.97 0.83 0.33
Avro RJ100. Aircraft Rating: E++The capacity of the RJ100 is notable though some long term operators have signaled their intent to move to alternative types in the coming years though this will not likely impact already weak values.
1993 1.53 1.07 1.76 0.58 -
1995 1.62 1.13 1.86 0.74 0.19
1997 1.71 1.19 1.96 0.81 0.31
1999 1.79 1.26 2.06 0.87 0.36
2001 1.88 1.32 2.17 0.94 0.41
Canadair CRJ200ER. Aircraft Rating: EConversions to freighter are taking place but there always a number on the market and values have continued to decline over the last decade. There can be a wide variation in value depending on condition with those in better condition able to command higher values.
1996 0.64 0.43 0.82 0.14 -
1998 0.92 0.62 1.18 0.32 -
2000 1.20 0.81 1.54 0.51 0.10
2002 1.49 1.00 1.90 0.70 0.25
2004 1.77 1.19 2.27 0.90 0.40
Canadair CRJ700ER. Aircraft Rating: C–The 70 seat market is facing continued pressure from larger aircraft. Values are falling as the age of the aircraft advances. The market for the 70 seaters is not what it once was and values are declining by a reasonable percentage.
2000 4.03 3.19 4.52 2.44 1.55
2002 4.96 3.92 5.55 3.10 2.07
2004 5.88 4.65 6.59 3.78 2.60
2006En 8.16 6.29 8.74 5.50 3.71
2008En 10.48 8.07 11.22 7.28 5.05
2010En 12.80 9.86 13.69 9.16 6.51
2012En 15.12 11.64 16.17 11.18 8.13
2014En 17.43 13.42 18.65 13.35 9.93
Canadair CRJ900En. Aircraft Rating: CThe CRJ product line is facing pressure from new market entrants but Bombardier has the ability to price the aircraft at attractive levels to maintain production. This inevitably has negative consequences for values. It is very fortunate that scope clauses have prevented operators from ordering newer and much environmentally friendly aircraft.
2005 8.01 6.33 9.21 5.23 3.64
2007 10.15 8.02 11.67 6.82 4.87
2009 12.29 9.71 14.14 8.49 6.21
2011 14.44 11.41 16.60 10.28 7.68
2013NG 16.64 13.81 18.13 12.28 9.38
2015NG 19.59 16.26 21.36 14.85 11.63
2017NG 22.55 18.72 24.58 17.23 13.89
Canadair CRJ1000. Aircraft Rating: CThe number of orders for the CRJ1000 remains disappointing. By comparison orders for the E190 number 575 with a backlog of some 60 aircraft. There was always expected to be a limited number of orders given the prescriptive nature of scope clauses in the US but with only 70 orders to date from four customers the outcome has been less than encouraging.
2010 15.59 12.63 17.15 10.53 7.63
2012 18.16 14.71 19.97 12.66 9.37
2014 20.72 16.78 22.79 14.94 11.31
2016 23.28 18.86 25.61 17.07 13.26
2018 25.85 20.94 28.43 18.99 15.21
CSeries CS300. Aircraft Rating: B—The acquisition – yet to be confirmed but expected in the Fall – will do much to reboot the CSeries or the A220 as it may be called. The type has many advantages and in service experience is encouraging. What is needed now is more orders.
2016 28.99 25.80 30.73 20.57 15.84
2018 34.91 31.07 37.01 24.83 19.75
Embraer 135ER. Aircraft Rating: EThere can be variaiton in values particularly if the type is used in a corporate transport role. The market for the type is difficult however, and expectations concerning sales prices need to be realistic. The 30 seater commuter jet is always an issue and it remains to be seen whether Turkey can make it work.
1999 1.06 0.79 1.27 0.42 0.03
2001 1.46 1.09 1.75 0.69 0.23
2003 1.86 1.39 2.23 0.97 0.44
2005 2.26 1.69 2.71 1.26 0.67
Embraer 145ER. Aircraft Rating: E+There are a large number on the market most of which originate in the U.S. and may not be easily exported to other countries where most buyers reside. Values have continued to fall by a significant amount and this trend will continue as the 50 seat market contracts in favor of larger aircraft.
1996 1.16 0.86 1.38 0.46 0.05
1998 1.39 1.03 1.66 0.61 0.18
2000 1.63 1.20 1.94 0.77 0.30
2002 1.86 1.38 2.22 0.93 0.42
2004 2.10 1.55 2.50 1.10 0.56
Embraer 170. Aircraft Rating: C–The E175 has become much more favored due to scope clauses and there is a concern that the 70 seaters will face greater weakness going forward. However, used examples are being placed although it can take time. The interior space of the 70-80 seater is comparable to much larger aircraft. The MRJ70 represents a formidable competitor when it finally enters service.
2003 6.01 4.68 6.49 3.89 2.64
2005 8.38 6.54 9.05 5.62 3.98
2007 10.76 8.39 11.62 7.43 5.40
2009 13.14 10.25 14.19 9.33 6.93
2011 15.52 12.10 16.76 11.35 8.62
2013 17.90 13.96 19.33 13.57 10.53
2015 20.27 15.81 21.89 15.77 12.53
2017 22.65 17.67 24.46 17.75 14.51
Embraer 175. Aircraft Rating: C / C++The E175 is still proving to be popular because of scope clauses. The US oeprators can just about operate this size of aircraft without falling foul of the agreements. The orderbook remains reasonable even as the E2 is developed which will now not enter service until 2021, a year behind the MRJ. This is because scope clauses are not being relaxed as envisaged.
2004 7.49 5.91 8.16 4.90 3.46
2006 10.14 8.01 11.05 6.85 4.99
2008 12.79 10.11 13.94 8.88 6.63
2010 15.45 12.20 16.84 11.03 8.41
2012 18.10 14.30 19.73 13.35 10.39
2014E 22.52 18.24 24.54 17.21 13.71
2016E 25.29 20.48 27.56 19.64 16.06
2018E 28.05 22.72 30.58 21.83 18.40
Embraer 190AR. Aircraft Rating: C+The E190 was the most popular variant and values have managed to achieve a measure of stability. The aircraft is facing new pressures as the E2 arrives. Pricing of new E190s has also become competitive which has impacted used values.
2005 10.95 8.98 11.83 7.27 5.11
2007 14.12 11.58 15.25 9.62 6.91
2009 17.29 14.17 18.67 12.09 8.86
2011 20.45 16.77 22.09 14.73 11.00
2013 23.62 19.37 25.51 17.61 13.42
2015 26.79 21.97 28.93 20.48 15.98
2017 29.96 24.56 32.35 23.06 18.49
Embraer 190E2. Aircraft Rating: B+The E190E2 has entered service with the engine not having the same issues as on the A320neo due to a slightly different design. The aircraft is more than a re-engining but involves a new wing and upgrades to the systems. This will provide a good foundation for the sale campaign which may yet be joined by Boeing.
2018 35.40 32.57 37.17 26.51 22.38
Embraer 195AR. Aircraft Rating: CThe E195 was never as popular as it should been given its greater capacity and economics but then it is perhaps too large for some operators. The CSeries is playing a part in displacing the E195 but Embraer is now able to offer a larger capacity with the E195E2.
2006 12.83 10.13 14.11 8.63 6.29
2008 16.09 12.71 17.70 11.11 8.26
2010 19.36 15.29 21.29 13.73 10.41
2012 22.62 17.87 24.88 16.56 12.80
2014 25.88 20.45 28.47 19.59 15.46
2016 29.15 23.03 32.06 22.42 18.15
2018 32.41 25.60 35.65 24.97 20.84
Fokker 100LGW. Aircraft Rating: E-There has been a measure of stability in values. There can also be variation in the pricing with some in good condition attracting much higher prices.
1987 1.14 0.59 1.48 - -
1989 1.17 0.61 1.51 - -
1991 1.19 0.62 1.55 0.29 -
1993 1.22 0.64 1.59 0.46 -
1995 1.25 0.65 1.63 0.56 0.09
MD82. Aircraft Rating: E–The MD82 is still in service with a variety of operators but this has little relevance to asset value.
1981 0.24 0.10 0.32 - -
1983 0.27 0.11 0.36 - -
1985 0.30 0.12 0.39 - -
1987 0.33 0.14 0.43 - -
1989 0.35 0.15 0.46 - -
1991 0.38 0.16 0.50 - -
1993 0.41 0.17 0.54 - -
1995 0.44 0.18 0.57 0.01 -
1997 0.46 0.19 0.61 0.04 -
MD83. Aircraft Rating: E–The operator base is still spread wide and there can be an equally wide variation in pricing. But for the MD83 pricing has supplanted value as value implies that it can be viewed as an asset.
1985 0.31 0.16 0.40 - -
1987 0.36 0.19 0.47 - -
1989 0.42 0.22 0.55 - -
1991 0.48 0.25 0.62 - -
1993 0.53 0.28 0.70 0.05 -
1995 0.59 0.31 0.77 0.12 -
1997 0.65 0.34 0.84 0.16 -
1999 0.70 0.37 0.92 0.20 -
MD88. Aircraft Rating: E–The MD88 is relevant to a few operators but not many just as pricing is of importance to a minority.
1987 0.39 0.20 0.48 - -
1989 0.47 0.24 0.59 - -
1991 0.56 0.29 0.70 0.01 -
1993 0.65 0.33 0.81 0.11 -
1995 0.73 0.37 0.92 0.21 -
1997 0.82 0.42 1.03 0.27 -
MD90. Aircraft Rating: E+The MD90 could not effectively compete with the A320 and B737-800 but those that are operated continue to provide viable service. Values have long been at scrap levels.
1994 1.49 0.79 1.94 0.71 0.12
1996 1.64 0.87 2.14 0.81 0.27
1998 1.80 0.95 2.34 0.92 0.39
MD11SF. Aircraft Rating: EThe MD11 is virtually no more and while there are still a number of freighters in use seeking to remarket them will be difficult even with the improvement in the airfreight market. The era of the trijet has passed.
1990 3.29 2.08 3.99 - -
1992 4.08 2.57 4.93 2.27 -
1994 4.86 3.06 5.88 2.78 1.71
1996 5.64 3.56 6.83 3.30 2.09
1998 6.43 4.05 7.78 3.83 2.49
2000 7.21 4.54 8.72 4.37 2.90
Superjet 100. Aircraft Rating: E–There have been some notable issues of late but the type is being operated outside of “spheres of influence”. Placing a value on the aircraft is still dependent on the aircraft being designed with considerable Western equipment.
2009 10.97 8.33 12.28 7.71 5.66
2011 13.70 10.41 15.34 9.96 7.50
2013 16.43 12.49 18.40 12.40 9.56
2015 19.16 14.56 21.46 14.85 11.74
2017 21.89 16.64 24.52 17.10 13.91
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