FOR CURRENT &
FUTURE AIRCRAFT VALUES

Assumptions

April 1, 2019

The table is published on an annual basis and complements the quarterly updates to specific aircraft categories. The table encompasses both current and future lease rentals. The methodology involved in calculating lease rentals differs from that of values. Lease rentals display greater volatility. Rentals are calculated individually and are not directly linked to values.

The listing of current and future lease rates is based on the year of build. However, unlike values, the relevance of the year of build is less significant. The essential assumption is that the aircraft are being leased as a single unit and between a willing lessor and willing lessee on a dry operating lease basis. Maintenance reserves are assumed to be payable in addition to the quoted rates.

The assumed rentals period ranges between seven years for modern narrowbodies to nine years for the larger widebodies. Aircraft out of production will likely involve shorter terms. The assumed rental period will change depending on the then prevailing market conditions. Weak market conditions will usually result in shorter terms while stronger conditions will likely result in lessors seeking to lock lessees at higher rentals for the longer term.

The high and low figures for October 2018 lease rentals represent adjustments for length of lease, the financial standing of the lessee and the return conditions. A longer lease to a stronger credit will likely result in lower rentals. These are not absolutes and sale and leaseback transactions may fall outside the figures indicated. Some transactions involving renegotiations on less popular aircraft may be considered exceptional and can fall outside the rental ranges. As aircraft age there may be less reliance on dry operating leases and greater emphasis on wet leasing or power by the hour agreements.

The rentals quoted below were prepared in late October 2018 in the context of a still stable but increasingly vulnerable market. The lease rentals listed below are Market Rates not theoretical Base Rentals. In addition to the commentary and lease rentals an indication of the Mid Case Lease Rate Factor (LRF), which expresses the current monthly rental as a percentage of the value, is also provided together with the relevant age of aircraft.

The quoted future rental, expressed in thousands of dollars per month are Market not Base Rates and attempt to predict cyclic trends when supply will exceed demand and vice versa. Rentals may therefore experience a rise as well as a fall in any projected year. The future rentals – three and seven years from 2018 – are expressed in thousands of current dollars having been adjusted for inflation and are based on only the Mid Case projection rentals. The figures are for guidance only. M/R = Maintenance reserves are excluded and return conditions assume half-life.

YEAR October 2018$’000 per month excl. M/R FUTURE LEASE RATE
MID HIGH LOW 2021 2025
A300F4-200 (Converted). LRF 1980 = 3.4The A300F4-200 still has some utility with approximately 25 in service with some 14 operators. The largest operator is Aerounion. In terms of leasing the aircraft has some attraction but it must be expected that leases will be of limited duration whereby utilization will be low. The aircraft is suited to ad hoc charters carrying perishables in volume. The type is much more likely to be provided on the basis of a power by the hour arrangement (a term coined by Rolls-Royce) with a minimum number of hours/paid for each month.
1975 40 60 29 - -
1977 42 63 30 - -
1979 44 66 31 - -
1981 45 68 33 - -
1983 47 70 34 - -
A300-600. LRF 1990 = 5.6A good aircraft – in its day which has long since passed. There are now only two operators of the type so leasing is not an issue as Mahan Air “operates” all but one of the 11 in “service”. Such types as the -600R and the B767 quickly supplanted the limited appeal of the -600. Mahan Air will now likely need to keep the aircraft flying somehow in view of new restrictions taking place due to on going squabbling in the international arena. Some aircraft are likely cannibalized to maintain the rest of the fleet.
1985 53 82 36 - -
1987 57 87 38 - -
1989 60 92 40 - -
1991 63 96 42 - -
A300-600R. LRF 1992 = 2.3Lease rates are inevitably low because of the availability of more modern equipment and because of the lesser efficiency. Finding a lessee will be difficult at least one that will be willing to take the aircraft for anything longer than three years. There are surprisingly few that remain in service – surprising because of the number that were delivered within the last 30 years. Long gone are names such as American Airlines. The type is now primarily operated by Middle Eastern operators as the type can be flown to Europe, the Indian sub-continent and Asia. Inevitably, Iran features large in the list. There are only nine operators operating 22 aircraft.
1987 39 54 28 - -
1989 47 65 34 - -
1991 54 75 39 - -
1993 60 83 43 27 -
1995 65 91 47 40 -
1997 70 98 50 45 17
A300-600RF. LRF 2000 = 1.0A good aircraft and fortunately rates have stabilized after many years of weakness. Post the financial crisis lease rentals plummeted as airfreight suffered. The concentration with FedEx – 68 – and UPS – 52 – is a concern given the total operator base is 174 with 13 operators. Placing the aircraft will not be as easy as might be expected but it will be possible. However, if either of the two major operators decide to dispose of their fleets finding homes will be that much more difficult. The B767F is in demand and to some extent, the shortage of the B767F will lead operators to opt for the A300F. This sector of the market may be relying to some extent on narrowbody freighters but in the coming years, operators will need to upsize and the -600RF still has the relative youth to be an option.
1994 112 158 88 98 70
1996 132 185 103 113 85
1998 145 205 113 128 101
2000 157 221 122 142 115
2002 169 238 132 156 130
2004 182 257 142 173 146
2006 194 273 151 188 162
A310-300LGW. 153t. CF6. LRF 1990 = 4.0A good aircraft but which failed to sell in numbers. Just as Boeing is finding out, designing an efficient small widebody is not easy. Two aisles sees a larger airframe diameter which leads to greater drag just as the larger engines increase weight. There are also a limited number of markets that require smaller capacity and longer range. The A310 has limited appeal and lease rentals have fallen to levels that make it difficult for further declines to be contemplated. There has been no direct replacement for the A310 although the increasing capacity of the A321 has provided some alternatives.
1985 23 32 16 - -
1987 35 49 24 - -
1989 45 63 31 - -
1991 53 74 37 - -
1993 60 84 42 24 -
1995 66 92 46 37 -
1997 71 99 50 47 13
A310-300SF. 157t CF6. LRF 1990 = 2.0There are inly six operators using 14 aircraft. While on the one hand this may be seen as a negative, the very limited number of aircraft with this type of capacity and range may make it more attractive to some operators. The freighter version, with its lower utilization, provides operators with both range and volume for the thinner routes. The type though is aging and operators have long since considered alternatives.
1985 72 99 55 - -
1987 74 103 57 - -
1989 77 106 58 - -
1991 79 109 60 - -
1993 81 112 62 57 -
1995 84 116 64 68 -
1997 87 119 66 71 41
A318. LRF 2004 = 1.1There are limited opportunities for the A318 particularly now that the A220 is available offering far greater efficiency. The A318Elite has seen a number move into the corporate world leaving relatively few in service. The lease rentals have continued to ease lower but having fallen so far means that there is little opportunity to fall further. There is little appetite in the market for the aircraft as was evidenced by only 80 ever being ordered. The aircraft is too small for the majors and too large for the regional operators.
2003 64 76 48 53 39
2005 78 93 59 63 51
2007 90 107 67 75 63
2009 100 119 75 86 74
2011 111 132 83 98 87
A319HGW. LRF 2001 = 1.1The lack of orders for the A319 in recent years can too easily be seen as an excuse to see weaker values and lease rentals. Certainly, there is lesser appetite for the aircraft in terms of new orders but in terms of the used market which needs to see replacements for the B737-300 for example, the A319 represents a good option. The lease rentals are holding reasonably steady as the market for the A319 is reasonably liquid.
1996 65 83 50 51 22
1998 78 100 61 60 38
2000 90 115 70 70 53
2002 102 130 79 81 63
2004 114 146 88 92 73
2006 127 162 98 103 84
2008e 138 177 107 115 95
2010e 171 205 137 146 126
2012e 196 236 157 170 150
2014e 221 265 177 195 175
2016e 247 296 198 217 195
A320-200HGW. 77 tonne CFM56. LRF 2004 = 1.2The market for the A320ceo remains strong – more so as a result of the grounding of the B737MAX. The type may have few left to be delivered and may have a successor in the form of the A320neo but with fuel prices remaining at reasonable levels and strong traffic growth, there is considerable appetite for the A320ceo. The high gross weight examples with sharklets and latest engines are still the most favored. The range of rentals at the lower end can be variable and it will be difficult to achieve rates of more than $300,000 for even new examples but in between there will be some consistency. A comparatively low rental needs to be seen in the context of maintenance reserves or end of lease payments. With an end of lease compensation arrangement equating to full life, this can mean that the lessor receives some $8 million at the end of a 10 year lease for half to full life. This equates to another $65,000 per month over the term of the lease. Consequently, this needs to be added to the seemingly low rental of $290,000 per month – ie this will total $355,000 per month. Even 20 years ago the A320 was still considered to be playing second fiddle to the B737 but the operator base numbers more than 300 which ensures that aircraft are constantly moving between operators.
1989 60 78 46 - -
1991 89 115 68 37 -
1993 109 142 84 58 -
1995 126 164 97 91 36
1997 142 185 109 105 61
1999 157 204 121 118 93
2001 168 219 130 128 105
2003 176 229 135 137 114
2005 180 234 139 143 123
2007e 184 239 143 163 139
2009e 210 273 164 177 159
2011e 231 301 180 199 182
2013e 251 327 196 221 206
2015e 284 369 221 250 233
2017e 309 402 241 268 246
A320neo. LRF 2018 = 0.76The woes affering the A320neo are dissipating and as such operators are beginning to be rewarded with better reliabiity and far greater efficiency. The problems of the B737MAX will likely benefit the A320neo and may see rates rise above the Boeing product whose rentals are now temporarily theoretical. Some low rentals are still being seen but again this needs to be viewed in the context of either End of Lease compensation payments or full life return conditions which can easily equate to a premium of $50,000 per month when compared to the half life return conditions. The differential in rentals between the ceo and neo are perhaps not what was desired but they may now be divering such that $25-35,000 is likely in a low interest environment. Many operators are now opting for 180+ seats and the SpaceFlex warrants a $5,000 a month premium.
2015 321 417 250 296 262
2017 362 471 283 330 287
A321-100LGW. LRF 1999 = 1.5The rates for the A321 remain at rock bottom and with little wonder. The age of the type combined with the limited operator base means that remarketing will be difficult. The leasing of the aircraft is possible but surprisingly a significant number remain with their original customers.
1994 47 58 39 28 5
1996 58 72 48 39 13
1998 67 84 56 47 24
2000 76 95 63 55 34
2002 85 105 71 63 41
2004 94 117 78 71 48
A321-200LGW. LRF 2001 = 1.1The market for the -200 remains robust and lease rentals are managing to avoid precipitous falls associated with age and the arrival of the A321neo. The aircraft has been delivered in far greater numbers than expected and even the late arrival of the B737-900ER failed to halt the march of orders from even U.S. airlines. The aircraft is of an age when more are likely to come onto the market and be the subject of replacement with the A321neo and this makes it important to consider the potential risks going forward. For the time being rentals are stable.
1996 88 104 68 68 35
1998 111 132 87 86 66
2000 129 154 101 103 83
2002 144 172 113 118 98
2004 159 190 124 132 113
2006 175 209 137 148 129
2008e 190 226 148 163 145
2010e 214 253 182 192 166
2012e 249 294 212 213 190
2014e 280 330 238 243 221
2016e 310 365 263 274 251
2018e 340 401 289 298 274
A321neo. LRF 2016 = 0.79This is the aircraft of choice since Boeing muddled its response with firstly the -9 and then the -10. The rentals for the A321neo may not be as high as might have been expected with the less than $400,000 per month more likely. Again, End of Lease compensation or full life return conditions need to be taken into account when seeing a commparatively low rental. The new door configuration may allow 240+ seats to be accommodated but there have been relatively few orders. The LR warrants a premium but not as much as Airbus would like to charge not least because operators simply will not abe able to generate the necessary revenues due to potentially fewer cycles.
2016 408 482 347 378 370
2018 444 523 377 395 388
A330-200. LRF 2001 = 1.2The A330 has been in some demand due to the problems being experienced with the B787 and this has allowed some improvement in short term rentals for the aircraft. However, in general terms rentals of the -200 are under pressure as the type ages and because of the greater interest in larger capacity equipment. The weakness in -200 lease rentals therefore continues apace. With 115 operators there is not likely to be much difficulty in placing the aircraft but this may be at the expense of lower rentals. Some operators of the type are struggling.
1998 133 164 109 106 70
2000 162 200 133 129 89
2002 189 233 155 156 109
2004e 294 338 256 250 188
2006e 360 413 313 312 238
2008e 425 489 370 376 291
2010e 486 559 423 439 343
2012e 542 623 471 501 395
2014e 593 681 516 560 445
2016e 638 734 555 602 481
2018e 679 781 591 631 496
A330-300HGW. LRF 2000 = 1.3For a number of years the -300 was the poor relation of the -200 but a decade this changed. The hiatus to the B787 was a factor but with Airbus realizing that the -300 had the range potential and economics for operators to make money, orders increased significantly. The lease rentals of the type are still under pressure as operators rollover their fleets in favor of newer types. The weight and age of the aircraft is an important consideration with the early examples particularly difficult to place. The Trent engine has not seemingly been a hindrance to placement. New lessor friendly TotalCare programs have also been a positive for the type.
1994 137 164 113 106 36
1996 156 186 128 121 63
1998 180 214 148 143 104
2000 201 239 165 162 120
2002 218 260 179 180 136
2004e 355 423 302 277 212
2006e 434 516 369 347 268
2008e 507 603 431 413 323
2010e 573 682 487 476 378
2012e 634 754 539 539 433
2014e 688 819 585 598 487
2016e 737 877 626 641 528
2018e 779 927 662 672 553
A340-200. LRF 1996 = 2.5The market for the -200 is sporadic at best and there has to be considerable reality when it comes to leasing. The aircraft is mostly in storage so potential lessees can pick and choose. The aircraft is not one for the faint hearted but for an operator looking for a short term lease, it still has some attraction.
1993 92 112 77 54 -
1995 98 119 82 57 17
1997 104 126 87 57 24
A340-300ER 275t. LRF 2002 = 1.7The market for the -300 continues to weaken as the aircraft is increasingly supplanted by newer models. There are a good number in storage most of which will never return to service. Lease terms are likely to be shorter than lessors would wish but there is little option but to accept what is on offer. The aircraft has therefore been a viable leasing tool in the past and may have paid its way. But not now.
1996 125 156 102 85 46
1998 139 174 114 96 63
2000 156 195 128 110 74
2002 173 216 141 124 84
2004e 208 251 174 157 114
2006e 227 274 190 177 130
2008e 245 297 206 195 145
A340-500I. LRF 2004 = 2.2There were some who dismissed the -500 as soon as it was launched considering the type to be marginalized rather than a niche aircraft. They were quickly proved right as the type was too expensive to operate. More than half the fleet are in storage which is not surprising in view of the move towards longer range twins. Leasing the aircraft is very difficult. Rates are therefore largely theoretical and any lease will be on the terms of the lessee rather than the lessor.
2002 160 189 131 119 78
2004 242 285 198 186 129
2006 319 377 262 251 179
A340-600I. LRF 2004 = 2.4To some extent the -600 has better prospects than the A380. The market for the aircraft is limited and placing the aircraft is very difficult once an existing lease expires. The rates for the -600 are continuing to decline and there can be considerable variation. Lessors may prefer power by the hour arrangements or not even lease it at all.
2002 170 199 144 128 84
2004 277 324 235 217 150
2006 378 442 321 303 216
A350-900. LRF 2014 = 0.8The A350 has proved itself much more capable than the original envsiaged re-engined A330 could ever do. Deliveries of the type are now at much higher rates and placement can be expected to be easy. The rentals of the aircraft built a few years ago are falling to some extent but not sufficient to be a cause for concern. Reliabilty is something that is constantly being improved. There have been issues over the standard of inteiror finishes.
2014 922 1014 853 880 701
2016 1057 1163 978 1048 846
2018 1190 1309 1100 1121 915
A350-1000. LRF 2017 = 0.9The A350-1000 may be seen as too small by some when compared to the B777-9 but with operators not wishing to transport large numbers of marginal economy passengers then perhaps a slightly smaller aircraft is not a hindrance, assuming the seat mile costs are similar.
2017 1510 1661 1397 1470 1242
A380LGW. LRF 2007= 0.9Lease rentals of the A380 are plummeting in the wake of the announcement that production will cease but then lease rentals were already facing downward pressures as it became apparent that placement was difficult.
2007 720 800 670 655 553
2009 912 1012 848 812 701
2011 1094 1214 1018 1003 875
2013 1273 1413 1184 1195 1052
2015 1454 1613 1352 1376 1219
2017 1637 1817 1523 1529 1352
A380HGW. LRF 2013=0.8The A380 remains the aircraft of choice for many passengers not least because there is little indication that the aircraft is actually flying. Yet, positive passenger perceptions do not fill the aircraft and operators have been turning their attention to smaller aircraft. The 575 tonne version offers operators greater versatility particularly in the context of filling the lower hold with cargo as more passengers use the overhead bins for luggage. Lease rentals are expected to fall although some sale and leasebacks may see higher rentals.
2013 1372 1522 1276 1296 1150
2015 1558 1729 1449 1483 1325
2017 1747 1940 1625 1642 1463
B717-200. LRF 2001 = 1.5A good aircraft that offers the limited number of operators good returns. Lease rentals are holding steady as the type remains with existing operators. However, retention by existing operators does not mean that lease rentals should be high. Of the 155 in service with five operators, Delta has the majority with 91 units which speaks volumes in terms of the danger of operator concentration.
1999 77 100 62 60 30
2001 84 110 68 66 34
2003 92 119 73 74 39
2005 99 129 79 81 44
B727-200HADV. LRF 1978 = 26.0The B727 is still in service with a myriad of operators of which a number are leased. The aircraft remains viable though the attraction remains with the operator rather than the wider market. Lower utilization will keep the aircraft flying for a few more years.
1972 8 14 5 - -
1974 12 21 8 - -
1976 15 28 11 - -
1978 19 34 13 - -
1980 23 41 16 - -
1982 27 48 19 - -
B727-200FHADV. LRF 1978 = 19.6The freighter still has considerable utility for many operators. There are just too many out there to ignore. The type will be good for leasing for many more years though power by the hour arrangements will be preferable for some.
1972 37 64 24 - -
1974 41 70 27 - -
1976 45 76 29 - -
1978 49 83 32 - -
1980 53 90 34 - -
1982 57 97 37 - -
B737-200HADV. LRF 1978 = 17.7The rates are at levels that make it difficult for lessors to consider going lower. Leases of any reasonable duration become more difficult to achieve.
1971 11 18 8 - -
1973 19 31 14 - -
1975 27 43 19 - -
1977 34 54 24 - -
1979 41 65 29 - -
1981 47 76 33 - -
1983 54 86 38 - -
1985 60 97 42 - -
B737-300HGW EFIS. LRF 1992 = 3.1The B737-300 remains very much a viable type for the lessor but there has to be a sense of realism in terms of rentals. The amount of management time required to lease a -300 may be the same as for a -800 but the returns can be higher as the aircraft will have already paid for itself since the youngest is already 20 years of age. The scrapping of the majority is therefore all too apparent which has implications for the value attributed when seeking to part out other units.
1985 42 51 35 - -
1987 43 53 36 - -
1989 45 54 37 - -
1991 46 56 38 15 -
1993 48 58 40 18 -
1995 50 61 42 26 2
1997 52 64 44 31 7
1999 54 66 45 33 12
B737-300SF. LRF 1992 = 1.6The conversion of the is less apparent than in previous years but the type is still in demand. As such lease rentals are holding steady. There are nearly 150 in a freighter role with 65 operators with the most being in Asia with very few being operated in the USA.
1985 64 79 53 - -
1987 66 81 55 - -
1989 67 83 56 - -
1991 69 85 58 40 -
1993 71 88 60 60 -
1995 75 93 63 64 32
1997 78 97 65 68 49
1999 80 100 67 72 54
B737-700HGW. LRF 2002 = 1.0In common with the A319s, it is too easy to dismiss the -700 although the concentration with Southwest is notable. The lease rentals have moved down slightly as age takes its toll. There are a number of lessors of the type but most will be seeking to extend existing leases rather than looking for a new lessee.
1997 89 109 75 71 39
1999 101 125 86 82 62
2001 113 139 96 94 73
2003 125 154 106 105 84
2005 138 169 117 118 95
2007/3 149 183 126 125 102
2009/3 174 213 148 146 122
2011/3 198 243 168 172 145
2013/E 226 278 192 200 173
2015/E 254 312 216 230 199
2017/E 282 347 240 251 216
B737-400HGW EFIS. LRF 1996 = 2.3A good aircraft that continues to be sought after as feedstock for the freighter conversion program. The youngest is now 20 years of age and moving around jurisdictions can raise the issue of age restrictions. The type is now two models removed from the latest offering. The type may be used to plug the gap due to the B737MAX issue. The passenger units losing their attraction and less than half of those originally delivered remain in passenger service although a significant number have been converted to freighters.
1988 42 52 34 - -
1990 47 58 38 16 -
1992 51 63 42 20 -
1994 55 67 44 28 4
1996 58 71 47 40 10
1998 63 77 51 44 18
B737-400SF. LRF 1996 = 1.3A good freighter that offers capacity for a wide range of operators rather than just one or two small package operators. Lease rentals are remaining steady as the type can be remarketed with relative ease. Nearly 140 are now in service with some 40 operators. With the A321 and B737-800 now the subject of freighter conversions there will inevitably be an impact on lease rentals but more in the next decade than this one.
1988 89 109 74 - -
1990 91 112 77 51 -
1992 94 116 79 77 -
1994 98 120 82 81 40
1996 102 125 86 86 62
1998 107 132 90 92 67
B737-800HGW. LRF 2002 = 1.1The B737-800 remains in demand despite the arrival of the B737MAX and the A320neo. The economics of the -800 when the price of fuel is below $75 a barrel. The price of fuel is still well below the twelve month peak. The oldest -800 is now 21 years of age and this must be remembered when considering the future of the aircraft. Lease rentals may have slipped recently but short term rates may have improved again due to the B737MAX situation. A premium still needs to be applied to the -800 over the A320 but not as much as in the past. Lessees need to be aware of the announcement by CFM concerning the cost of overhauls and LLPs going forward.
1998 152 186 129 119 90
2000 159 196 135 128 100
2002 165 202 140 137 111
2004 170 209 145 145 121
2006 179 220 152 155 132
2008/3 213 261 189 187 168
2010/3 233 287 207 216 198
2012/E 268 330 239 239 222
2014/E 301 370 267 276 258
2016/E 333 410 296 302 283
2018/E 366 450 326 323 296
B737MAX8. LRF 2017 = 0.8To consider that the lease rentals of the MAX should be reduced is perhaps an overreaction. The grounding of the aircraft should be viewed as temporary and once the type is released back into the air then much of the current negativity surrounding the type will dissipate. The aircraft is very much offering the efficiency improvements hoped for by operators. Production will likely be slowed to some extent depending on how long the grounding continues for – at least until the end of May is expected. The lease rentals of the type may not enjoy a premium over the A320neo going forward.
2017 385 500 300 355 287
B737-600LGW. LRF 2002 = 1.1The -600 is far from a favored variant and lease rentals are always under pressure as the market seeks alternative types. It must be remembered that types such as the E195 offer just as much capacity as the -600. The 69 delivered was a disappointment and any lessor of the type will be hoping for a lease extension as finding a new lessee will not be easy. Lessors may be better off parting the aircraft while the demand for the engines remains strong. The type straddles two market segments and fails to meet the needs of either.
1998 45 52 38 35 21
2000 55 64 46 45 30
2002 63 74 53 53 38
2004 71 84 60 62 46
2006 80 94 67 71 55
B737-900. LRF 2004 = 0.9There is little to commend the -900 and any strength lies with the current operator rather than the wider market. The rates have already fallen to a significant degree and there is no expectation of an improvement should the few that were delivered come to market. through lease extensions. While Airbus has launched some aircraft variants that have failed to gain traction, Boeing has also had its fair share with the -900 being a prime example.
2000 76 88 66 63 49
2002 83 96 71 68 55
2004 90 104 77 76 63
B737-900ER. LRF 2007= 0.9The -900ER was seen by some as very much the replacement for the A321 but this ignored the capacity and range offered by the Airbus product. The -900ER was delivered to too few operators to prevent weakness occurring in lease rentals. Rates are still exhibiting a slight fall not least because only three operators possess the majority of -900ERs in service.
2006 172 196 151 136 117
2008/3 197 225 173 168 147
2010/3 223 255 197 200 176
2012/E 257 292 226 221 209
2014/E 290 330 255 263 249
2016/E 323 368 284 291 276
2018/E 357 407 314 314 291
B747-200B. JT9D LRF 1979 = 14.0The market for the -200B is nonexistent. Rates reflect the lack of attraction.
1971 8 13 6 - -
1973 21 35 15 - -
1975 29 49 21 - -
1977 34 56 24 - -
1979 37 61 26 - -
1981 40 66 28 - -
1983 41 69 30 - -
1985 41 68 29 - -
1987 38 64 28 - -
B747-200SF. JT9D/PW4000 LGW LRF 1984 = 4.4There were some that were converted in the last decade, few of which are likely to have paid their way since. The aircraft is still of some use as a backup and for its engines but that is about all.
1975 29 41 22 - -
1977 30 44 23 - -
1979 31 45 23 - -
1981 31 45 24 - -
1983 32 46 24 - -
1985 33 47 25 - -
1987 33 48 25 - -
1989 33 48 25 - -
1991 33 48 25 11 -
B747-300. LRF 1987 = 7.4Finding one that is actually in revenue service is difficult.
1983 25 34 17 - -
1985 25 34 17 - -
1987 25 35 18 - -
1989 26 35 18 - -
B747-400. CF6 LRF 1993 = 1.8The -400 cannot hide from a market environment that no longer sees any attraction in the type. The world has moved to twin engined aircraft seemingly forever. Finding a lessee for those aircraft being released by existing operators will be difficult just as it has been for nearly a decade. The higher operating and maintenance costs are taking their toll although operators with in house capability continue to see its value. Any lease term will likely be short with lessees seeking to avoid costly return conditions. Leasing the aircraft has never been popular anyway as the majority were acquired by the major airlines through a finance deal as lessors realized the difficulty in placing the aircraft onto the used market.
1989 70 86 56 27 -
1991 85 103 67 43 -
1993 95 116 75 69 23
1995 105 128 83 78 42
1997 114 139 90 87 66
1999 124 152 98 97 76
2001 133 162 105 106 86
2003 140 171 111 113 95
B747-400M. LRF 1993 = 1.8With freighter conversion no longer a realistic prospect the -400M has lost much of its attraction. The lease rentals of the type are falling and offer only a modest premium over the passenger version.
1989 117 139 101 - -
1991 126 149 108 89 -
1993 133 157 114 116 -
1995 140 165 120 125 75
1997 148 175 128 136 99
1999 158 187 136 147 110
2001 167 197 144 158 120
B747-400F. LRF 1998 = 1.4The airfreight market is showing some resilience but there are also signs of weakness amidst protectionism and fears over economic growth. The rates had previously managed to register a degree of stability but it now appears that some weakness has re-emerged. The type is well equipped to meet the demands of the market in terms of fuel and maintenance costs. Yet, capacity needs are being met by new widebodies with underfloor capacity as well as the B777F and B747-8F making it more difficult to find homes for the type. There are a still a significant number of B777Fs yet to be delivered. The considerable age range ensures that there exists lease rental convergence with fewer operators willing to pay such a premium for newer examples which offers similar the same capacity and performance.
1993 240 276 208 195 -
1995 272 313 237 220 157
1997 302 348 263 251 182
1999 332 382 289 281 207
2001 364 419 317 312 233
2003 398 457 346 345 260
2005 430 494 374 378 288
2007 460 529 400 411 316
2009 488 561 425 444 345
B747-8I. LRF 2012 = 0.9The market for the -8I is even worse than for the A380 and lease rentals are falling as a result. The aircraft is by no means attractive and when retirement looms there will be few takers although conversion to a freighter may be ecoomical if the price is sufficiently low to warrant the $30m+ cost of conversion. Some sale and leasebacks have taken place but lessors will now have to be very conscious of making sure that a remarketing plan is in place well ahead of lease expiration. The preference will be for lease extensions rather than having to deal with a return.
2010 766 850 689 817 678
2012 835 927 752 899 766
2014 896 994 806 1011 876
2016 956 1062 861 1095 960
2018 1025 1138 923 1168 1015
B747-8F. LRF 2011 = 0.9A good aircraft and suprisingly a few more remain to be delivered. The aircraft still has attraction and when entering the market should be placed. Rentals are falling as the airfreight industry suffers slightly. The pricing of the -8F has perhaps been reduced by a significant amount to keep production going and this will have an impact on lease rentals at some point.
2009 940 1072 846 871 770
2011 1062 1211 956 960 863
2013 1183 1348 1064 1103 998
2015 1304 1487 1174 1227 1119
2017 1429 1629 1286 1331 1214
B757-200 (220,000lbs RB211). LRF 1990 = 1.8A great aircraft that keeps on going but age and maintenance costs are making it less of a difficult decision when it comes time to seek a replacement. The lease rentals are falling slightly as must be expected although the B737MAX situation may see some idle units being pressed into service once again for a short time. Going forward the placement of the aircraft will become more difficult as ever more A321s are delivered particularly in terms of the A321neo and the extension in range albeit with the need for additional fuel tanks. The US majors still operate a large number of those that remain in service which does not bode well.
1982 49 61 38 - -
1984 61 76 47 - -
1986 70 88 55 - -
1988 78 97 61 - -
1990 84 105 65 41 -
1992 88 110 69 64 -
1994 92 115 72 68 32
1996 95 118 74 72 50
1998 97 121 75 76 54
2000 99 123 77 79 57
2002 101 126 79 82 61
B757-200ER (250,000lbs RB211). LRF 1994 = 1.6The -200ER is still used on some long haul routes that even the A321LR will find difficult to replace. The rates of the -200ER, have however fallen in recent years to such a level that now allows a measure of stability to emerge. The cost of an engine overhaul is still a concern for operators at some $4 million. The cost of the LLPs is also not cheap although lower utilization will play a role in extending the occurrence of such costs.
1987 81 100 68 - -
1989 88 109 73 - -
1991 94 116 78 56 -
1993 99 121 82 72 -
1995 102 126 85 76 43
1997 105 130 87 80 55
1999 108 132 89 84 59
2001 110 135 91 87 63
B757-200SF. LRF 1992 = 1.2The B757 certainly proved itself in the freighter role not least in the U.S. where transcontinental range was important. The aircraft may be aging but low utilization levels are ensuring that the type continues to provide economical service. Again, the youngest will increasingly see convergence with the oldest. The type still has considerable life remaining not least because of limited utilization.
1982 47 58 40 - -
1984 68 84 58 - -
1986 84 104 71 - -
1988 96 118 81 - -
1990 104 128 88 68 -
1992 109 135 92 88 -
1994 111 138 94 93 60
1996 112 139 95 96 77
1998 111 138 94 99 82
2000 110 136 93 101 87
2002 108 134 92 103 91
B757-300LGW. LRF 2001 = 1.2The lease rentals for the -300 can be higher perhaps because it is a niche rather than marginalized variant and is therefore in short supply for those few operators willing to take the type. A stretch too far for most operators but there can be some variation in rates depending on the needs of the lessor and lessee. A wider aisle is needed should a single aisle be present on the new MoM aircraft being contemplated by Boeing at long last.
1998 76 88 65 67 48
2000 85 99 73 77 58
2002 93 108 80 85 67
B767-200. LRF 1986 = 4.7The lease rentals of the -200 have been at these levels for some years. There are few in service which is not surprising in view of the age of the aircraft. The rates for the -200 are perhaps the lowest they can be.
1981 15 20 12 - -
1983 22 29 18 - -
1985 28 37 23 - -
1987 34 44 27 - -
1989 39 50 31 - -
1991 44 57 35 16 -
B767-200ER HGW. LRF 1990 = 3.0The aircraft still has some utility as it can fly longer sectors. The fuel consumption though is a concern even if the lease rentals are not and maintenance is an on-going issue. Reliability is a key concern when flying long haul because of the difficulty to finding a replacement should there be an AOG.
1984 58 72 48 - -
1986 62 76 51 - -
1988 65 80 54 - -
1990 68 85 57 25 -
1992 72 89 60 39 -
B767-300. LRF 1992 = 2.4The type was only ever ordered by a few operators. The type has dispersed slightly but finding a lessee will be difficult. Leasing has been of little interest and lessors have been wary of participating.
1986 39 48 31 - -
1988 44 55 35 - -
1990 48 60 39 19 -
1992 52 65 42 28 -
1994 56 69 45 42 10
1996 60 74 48 46 18
1998 64 79 51 50 29
2000 68 84 54 54 33
B767-300ER HGW. LRF 1999 = 1.4This was the widebody that really allowed lessors to participate in widebody leasing. Compared to the larger widebodies, the B767-300ER represented lessor risk given that its cost was lower and the operator base was expansive. Even today the type is generating good returns for the lessors that have the experience to manage an ageing type. Boeing may or may not develop the Middle of the Market aircraft – the B797 given the issues with the B737MAX. The age of the B767 is however high which makes for shorter lease terms.
1988 88 106 75 - -
1990 121 147 103 51 -
1992 145 175 123 91 -
1994 163 197 139 124 51
1996 180 218 153 139 86
1998 198 240 168 156 116
2000 213 258 181 170 129
2002 227 275 193 185 143
2004 235 284 200 195 154
2006 239 289 203 202 163
2008 238 288 203 207 170
2010 234 283 199 209 175
B767-300F. LRF 2003 = 1.1The B767-300F still reigns supreme in tems of medium sized widebody freighters and will continue to do so for many years despite the arrival of newly converted types. The rentals are not expected to increase because conversion of other widebodies offering greatrer efficiency will stat to take place but for the time being they remain stable.
1995 177 217 152 142 100
1997 200 247 172 155 114
1999 220 271 189 173 131
2001 238 293 205 190 148
2003 258 317 222 209 166
2005 279 344 240 229 186
2007 299 368 257 250 206
2009 317 390 273 269 226
2011 332 408 286 288 247
2013 345 424 297 307 269
B767-400. LRF 2000 = 1.3The -400 operates in the wings of the market given that few were built. Lease rentals are low for such a size of aircraft but then demand is also limited and this will contine.
2000 136 160 117 109 77
2002 168 197 145 129 95
B777-200. LRF 2001 = 1.8There was always the feeling that the -200 represented something of a false dawn for lessors. For those that could not lease a -200ER the -200 was seen as close enough – except it never has been a match for the more versatile variant. Lease rentals are still falling as the market moves to other types. The aircraft needs an experienced lessor to manage the not inconsiderable risk.
1995 87 102 69 66 29
1997 109 127 87 81 53
1999 129 150 103 98 68
2001 147 172 118 115 82
2003 165 193 132 131 96
B777-200ER. LRF 2001 = 1.7A good vehicle for leasing for a while but that time was more than a decade ago. The demise of the type was largely ignored for several years but today lessors are seeking to eek out a few more years of rentals at any cost before inevitably scrapping the aircraft. Age and new types are having an effect and retirement is becoming much more of a reality as finding another operator willing to take the aircraft is proving difficult. Higher fuel costs, inferior IFE and lesser reliability are taking their toll.
1996 177 207 143 133 88
1998 227 266 184 170 119
2000 265 310 215 200 146
2002 295 345 239 227 171
2004 321 376 260 252 194
2006 348 408 282 278 219
2008 377 441 305 306 245
2010 401 469 325 333 271
2012 421 492 341 357 295
B777F. LRF 2008 = 1.0The backlog of the B777F remains viable for a few more years yet demonstrating that the type is still well placed to serve the needs of the airfreight market. Lease rentals for the younger aircraft are perhaps slightly lower than in the past but they still represent a high level. Placement of used aircraft may take time as there are still relatively few operators who have the route structure to support the type. The aircraft provides very good economics on those routes which have dense high value loads.
2008 775 852 682 719 648
2010 860 946 757 768 713
2012 939 1033 826 845 799
2014 1015 1116 893 932 894
2016 1092 1201 961 1001 972
2018 1174 1291 1033 1063 1027
B777-300. LRF 2003 = 1.3The -300 was produced in very limited numbers and the leasing community never saw it as a viable leasing tool. Lease rentals are continuing to fall and this trend will remain a feature for many years to come. To some extent freighter conversion will pass the type by as the focus will be on the -300ER.
1998 181 210 148 150 109
2000 226 262 185 185 141
2002 262 304 215 212 167
2004 293 340 240 241 195
2006 321 372 263 270 223
B777-300ER. LRF 2004 = 1.1Despite the -300ER being so well liked there has to be a recognition that there are some very larger operators of the type who do not like operating older aircraft. Availability is therefore an issue going forward and placement with second tier carriers will likely be at the expense of lower rentals. With production coming to an end there will be a need for rentals to become increasingly realistic.. The -300ERs very popularity and size of the aircraft will prove to be a hindrance in placement as they are a great many being leased via sale and leasebacks.
2003 566 639 498 481 388
2005 685 774 603 564 466
2007 794 897 699 656 552
2009 897 1014 789 754 642
2011 998 1128 878 856 734
2013 1102 1245 970 965 833
2015 1209 1366 1064 1065 921
2017/E 1339 1513 1178 1123 988
B787-8. LRF 2011= 0.9The market for the -8 is perhaps more fragile than might be realized. There have been very few orders of late and the backlog is very limited. The -8 proved the concept but the -9 was the variant that operators needed. Lease rentals are therefore very much a shadow of the levels seen at the time of launch.
2010 591 692 532 514 421
2012 665 778 599 578 487
2014 732 857 659 657 562
2016 799 935 719 714 618
2018 873 1021 786 767 657
B787-9. LRF 2014 = 0.9This is the B787 of choice and lease rentals are remaining reasonably stable as a result althoigh it has to be noted that the oldest is already five years of age. The -9 has however, had its problems in terms of the Rolls-Royce engines which resulted in a number being grounded for some time. This has not really affected lease rentals which are somewhat theoretical as the type has yet to be placed onto the used market.
2014 889 1040 814 835 725
2016 1018 1191 931 930 823
2018 1142 1336 1045 1041 917
B787-10. LRF 2018 = 1.0The B787-10 has entered service perhaps in an understated manner. The lease rentals have yet to be proven but at present appear to have some stability even if the range is likely to be increased sometime soon.
2018 1298 1519 1188 1191 986
BAe146-200. LRF 1989 = 5.3There is little to commend the -200 except that it is very much cheaper than some other 80 seaters in the market. The lease rentals of the BAe146 are already at very low levels such that the lessors cannot really afford to accept anything lower.
1984 25 31 20 - -
1986 28 34 22 - -
1988 30 37 24 - -
1990 31 38 25 6 -
1992 32 39 25 12 -
BAe146-300. LRF 1989 = 4.4The lease rentals cannot fall any further as lessors would then lose money but even scrapping the aircraft will generate very little. Remarketing the aircraft is difficult and perhaps always has been so its best to seek an extension to existing leases. The aircraft still has some utility not least because of its capacity which is surprisingly large.
1984 25 31 20 - -
1986 27 33 21 - -
1988 29 35 23 - -
1990 30 37 23 7 -
1992 30 37 24 13 -
Avro RJ85. LRF 1998 = 1.8There are still a reasonable number in service even if the four engined configuration is no longer seen as appropriate except for the largest of freighters where even six engines is sometimes is not enough. The RJ85 is now all but two generations away from the competition and this is causing rentals to be slightly weaker. The four engines may seem to belong to a previous era but the performance is such that it can be used at a number of otherwise inaccessible airports.
1993 31 39 24 21 -
1995 31 39 25 21 4
1997 32 40 25 21 7
1999 32 40 25 22 8
2001 33 41 26 23 9
Avro RJ100. LRF 1998 = 1.9The market for the RJ100 is difficult but a number remain in service not least because of the cost of replacement. Rates are dependent on the lessee and the term of the lease. Compared to the new offerings of similar capacity the rentals on the RJ100 are a bargain.
1993 31 39 24 21 -
1995 32 41 25 22 5
1997 34 42 26 23 8
1999 35 43 27 24 10
2001 36 45 28 26 11
Canadair CRJ200ER. LRF 2001 = 2.0The market for the CRJ200ER is sporadic but it does still exist. The range of rentals can be considerable depending on the lessee and term of the lease. The market for vanilla leases is limited with those in better condition likely to be the more sought after.
1996 18 22 14 7 -
1998 24 30 19 13 -
2000 29 36 23 18 3
2002 34 42 27 23 7
2004 38 48 30 28 12
Canadair CRJ700ER. LRF 2002 = 1.4The 70 seat market has long been under pressure and lease rentals of the CRJ700ER have been suffering for some years as a result. This downward trend is continuing and there is still some way to go. There have been few if any orders or deliveries in recent years in this segment of the market.
2000 67 82 55 58 39
2002 74 90 60 64 46
2004 78 95 64 70 53
2006en 101 120 87 90 69
2008en 117 138 100 106 85
2010en 128 151 110 120 101
2012en 136 160 117 134 116
2014en 142 168 123 145 129
2016en 149 176 128 153 139
Canadair CRJ900ER. LRF 2002 = 1.4The CRJ900 is ageing but the type remains virtually the only type remaining in its commercial aircraft product line up with the others having been sold off. With an ageing airframe and deteriorating economics the only way forward is via a lower sale price and therefore lower rentals..
2002 74 85 64 64 42
2004 82 94 71 72 53
2006en 104 120 91 89 72
2008en 114 131 99 100 84
2010en 121 139 105 110 96
2012ng 147 169 128 137 118
2014ng 160 184 139 143 130
2016ng 169 194 147 150 140
2018ng 175 201 152 153 142
Canadair CRJ1000. LRF 2011 = 0.9The CRJ1000 has not perhaps been the success that it could have been but instead has provided to have a limited operator base which may suggest that remarketing with be difficult in in the coming years. Lease rentals are falling which will be a feature of the type going forward.
2009 144 162 129 125 105
2011 157 176 140 130 116
2013 166 186 148 141 129
2015 174 195 155 149 140
2017 180 202 160 153 145
A220/CS300. LRF = 0.8Now that Airbus is applying its own experience then there is an expectation that the type will enjoy an improvement in fortunes. The lease rentals remain the same. There is a concern that there will be changes to the specification that may leave earlier examples in the lurch but for the moment that is not the issue.
2016 247 308 202 226 194
2018 285 357 234 242 215
ERJ135ER. LRF 2001 = 1.8The commuter jet was always likely to be a difficult sell in an unregulated environment and it comes as no surprise that a number are operated as corporate shuttles. Lease rentals can exhibit a considerable range.
1999 20 24 16 14 0
2001 25 30 21 19 6
2003 30 35 25 24 11
2005 34 41 28 29 16
ERJ145ER. LRF 2001 = 2.0The fortunes of the ERJ145 have not bee good. The rentals have continued to fall and there is inevtiably lease rental convergence whereby whether the aircraft is young or old, the rates may not vary by much. The 50 seat market has seen a considerable decline over the course of the last decade and lease rentals have also fallen to rock bottom levels with the oldest and youngest having all but the same rental.
1996 28 35 23 18 1
1998 32 40 27 21 5
2000 36 44 30 25 9
2002 40 49 33 29 13
2004 43 53 35 33 17
2006 47 57 38 37 21
Embraer 170. LRF 2005 = 1.2The 70 seat market is much weaker than it was a decade ago and lease rentals have suffered as a result. Orders for the aircraft have long been limited and remarketing has not been easy with lease rentals having to be competitive. The E175 is much more favored these days than the E170 such that lease rentals of the latter continue to falter with rates falling even for the newer examples. The introduction of the E2 underlines the fact that the ERJ170 is not part of the new line-up. The MRJ70 will act as a direct replacement.
2003 70 79 61 53 39
2005 94 107 83 74 60
2007 113 128 99 92 79
2009 128 144 112 108 96
2011 140 158 123 122 112
2013 151 171 133 136 128
2015 163 184 143 150 144
Embraer 175. LRF 2006 = 1.1 There exists a clear disconnect between the extensive number of orders for the E175 in recent years and the potential for secondary leasing. The concentration in the US brings up the experience of the CRJ200 and ERJ145. Once the operators in the US have lost their appeitite there is little to commend the type to operators in other regions.
2004 93 106 82 74 61
2006 113 128 100 93 81
2008 129 146 114 109 100
2010 142 161 125 124 117
2012 154 174 136 139 134
2014E 188 212 165 174 172
2016E 199 224 175 184 184
2018E 207 233 182 189 186
Embraer E190. LRF 2006 = 1.1The market for the E190 is much weaker than a year ago. There are a good many coming onto the market for which there is only limited demand. Even reducing lease rentals does not seem to have been sufficient to elicit interest. There can be expected to be much lower rentals yet.
2005 114 129 101 91 74
2007 143 162 127 112 96
2009 166 187 147 132 118
2011 183 207 163 150 139
2013 198 224 176 167 158
2015 211 238 188 181 174
2017 224 254 200 190 183
Embraer E195. LRF 2008 = 1.0The type never really realized its potential and as such lease rentals are suffering. Yet, the larger capacity may allow operators to cope more effectively with above trend traffic growth. With the E195E2,the capacity is increased further allowing operators who can fill the aircraft, to be better employ their pilot resources.
2006 132 150 118 105 90
2008 158 179 141 122 110
2010 179 202 159 141 131
2012 196 221 174 159 152
2014 210 238 187 175 171
2016 224 253 199 187 184
2018 237 268 211 195 189
FD328JET. LRF 2001 = 1.9The FD328JET is to be developed by Turkey but in its current guise, the market for the type has been less than inspiring with tepid lease rentals to boot assuming that any are leased.
1999 16 20 13 9 -
2001 17 22 14 10 -
Fokker 70. LRF 1995 = 2.2The Fokker 70 has had its day and lease rentals reflect the lack of attractive except to a few operators. Lease extensions will be at discounted levels and can exhibit considerable variability. The appetite for the aircraft is very limited.
1994 27 34 21 18 1
1996 29 37 23 20 4
Fokker 100LGW. LRF 1992 = 2.8The Fokker 100 is more than 30 years of age and lease rentals reflect such vintages with further weakness all too evident. Yet the Fokker 100 is still in operation with a range of operators and has some utility but for how much longer remain to be seen.
1987 34 43 27 - -
1989 34 42 27 - -
1991 33 42 27 14 -
1993 33 41 26 21 -
1995 33 41 26 21 3
MD82. LRF 1986 = 5.6Lessees are able to dictate rates rather than the lessors and power by the hour arrangements are likely to dominate.
1981 17 22 13 - -
1983 18 23 13 - -
1985 18 24 14 - -
1987 19 25 14 - -
1989 20 26 15 - -
1991 21 27 16 1 -
1993 22 29 16 3 -
1995 23 30 17 5 -
1997 24 31 18 6 -
MD83. LRF 1988 = 5.5The number of operators is still high considering that the type is not perceived to be popular. Rentals reflect the very limited appeal.
1985 18 24 14 - -
1987 21 27 15 - -
1989 23 30 17 - -
1991 25 32 19 3 -
1993 27 35 20 8 -
1995 30 39 22 11 -
1997 32 42 24 14 -
1999 34 45 26 16 -
MD88. LRF 1992 = 5.7The digital cockpit is of relevance to a few operators but the type is not mainstream and lease rentals depend more on the lessee.
1987 24 30 18 - -
1989 28 36 21 - -
1991 33 41 25 6 -
1993 37 47 28 13 -
1995 41 52 31 19 -
1997 46 58 34 23 -
MD90. LRF 1997 = 2.9The MD90 still has considerable merit but the aircraft is facing pressures from which there is no escape and lease rental remain depressed. Rates can be higher for some lessees but are simply marginal compared to newer types.
1994 47 59 36 31 4
1996 49 62 38 32 8
1998 52 65 39 34 12
MD11SF. LRF 1996 = 1.8There is increasingly limited appetite for the MD11F even with the improvement in the airfreight market. The operator base is much less diverse than it used to be and rates have inevitably declined again.
1990 62 77 51 43 -
1992 71 89 59 51 -
1994 82 101 67 60 37
1996 92 114 75 68 44
1998 101 125 83 76 52
2000 110 136 90 85 59
SUPERJET. LRF 2009 = 1.2The Superjet has been the subject of continual improvement and this inevtiuably means that the early vintage aircraft can be at a disadvantage. There is a concern that the withdrawal of the type by some Western operators so soon after service entry points to a weak prospects for onward leasing. Achieving a dollar denominated lease rental will be something of a rarity.
2009 117 131 94 104 90
2011 132 147 105 114 105
2013 139 156 112 125 120
2015 143 160 114 132 131
2017 144 160 114 132 133

The data has been extracted from the October 31st 2018 semi-annual Aircraft Values Basic 2018-2038, priced $1,750.00, by courtesy of The Aircraft Value Analysis Company. Telephone: +44 (0) 203 468 5594, Fax: +44 (0) 203 468 5596, E-mail: sales@aircraftvalues.net Internet http://www.aircraftvalues.net; www.aircraftvalues.com

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